What a difference a year makes.
Around this time last year, the Council of the District of Columbia overrode Mayor Muriel Bowser’s veto of a criminal code reform bill that, among other things, lowered penalties for carjacking, robbery, and burglary.
At the time of the bill’s passage, Washington was already in the midst of a dramatic increase in carjackings that began in June 2020. From January 2018 until May 2020, the city averaged 12.3 carjackings a month. That number increased to 39.7 carjackings a month between June 2020 and January 2023, when the council overrode the mayor’s veto.
And, for the record, carjackings in the district have not been restricted to “that” part of town. In August 2022, Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. was shot in the leg during an attempted carjacking in broad daylight.
When she vetoed the criminal code reform bill, Bowser, a Democrat, said, “This bill does not make us safer. … Any time there’s a policy that reduces penalties, I think it sends the wrong message.” No one would doubt the mayor’s progressive credentials, but the D.C. Council had her sounding like former U.S. Attorney General Ed Meese, who served during the Reagan administration.
Then, in a rare bipartisan move, Congress passed, and President Joe Biden signed, a Republican-led resolution that stopped the measure from going into effect.
But since then, public order has continued to deteriorate. The city has averaged 81.9 carjackings per month over the past year, one example being Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), who was carjacked outside his Navy Yard home.
Homicides are also at their highest total since 1997, and a poll from last March found that only 29% of Washington residents feel “very” safe in their neighborhood, compared to 59% of residents in the Virginia suburbs.
None of this resonated with the D.C. Council, which still seems to be committed to the idea that the solution to the crime crisis is less punishment. This week, for example, councilmembers voted almost unanimously to add an amendment to the Secure D.C. Act, an omnibus bill meant to address crime, that would prevent the city from decreasing the felony theft threshold from $1,000 to $500.
Enter Councilwoman Brooke Pinto, a Democrat and chairwoman of the public safety committee, who recognizes the problem for what it is. She introduced a measure to the Secure D.C. Act that would expand the definition of carjacking, give judges more leeway in detaining violent offenders, including juveniles, and roll back a number of previously passed police reforms, among other changes.
This should be a welcome policy shift for crime-weary Washington residents. Contrary to popular media narratives and even the prognostications of some academic criminologists, policing, accountability, and incarceration are key to reducing violent crime.
Serious crime, especially violent offenses involving guns, concentrates among a very small percentage of residents. In fact, it’s typically less than 1% of a city’s population that is both gang-affiliated and responsible for between 50% and 70% of all shootings and homicides. Investigating, apprehending, prosecuting, and incapacitating these offenders matters. In fact, incarcerating just one high-rate offender prevents an average of 9.4 serious felonies.
Sentence length matters, too. A study from the Federal Sentencing Commission in 2022 found that longer sentences for federal inmates were associated with significant reductions in recidivism. An earlier study of Ohio parolees found the same thing, as does the balance of the technical literature on the matter.
Under Pinto’s proposal, more violent offenders would face significant sentences. First-offense armed robbers face up to seven years in prison, but carjackers face between seven and 15 years. By expanding the definition of carjacking to include more conduct, many who were previously only charged with armed robbery would face much stiffer penalties.
This is in line with what voters want out of criminal justice policy. A recent poll of likely 2024 general election voters found that a whopping 79% favor tougher sentences for violent offenders.
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It’s also a strong statement about the quality of life voters want for their communities. Higher violent crime rates don’t just mean more victims. They mean a lower quality of life in the most vulnerable neighborhoods, leaving communities with fewer jobs, less economic mobility, and worse educational and behavioral outcomes for children.
Incarceration isn’t a panacea, but when it comes to violent recidivists, the available research and voter sentiment are in agreement: Hold them accountable.
Joshua Crawford is the Director of Criminal Justice Initiatives at the Center for Opportunity.
