When Volodymyr Zelensky won Ukraine’s presidency, he was a breath of fresh air. Famous in Ukraine as a comedian and political satirist, his rise to the highest office mirrored his character in Servant of the People, a miniseries about a schoolteacher who unexpectedly wins the presidency after a rant against government corruption goes viral on social media.
Zelensky’s rise did upturn traditional Ukrainian politics. The Kremlin had long used the corruption of Ukraine’s traditional political class to protect its local interests. Zelensky’s pursuit of clean governance rather than the overstated Western ambition to join NATO is what drives Putin’s choice of targets and timing. Consider the pattern the Kremlin has established.
- Azerbaijan: In 1992, Azerbaijanis held their first democratic election. Abulfaz Elchibey, a former Soviet dissident, won a landslide victory and became post-Soviet Azerbaijan’s first non-communist leader. Elchibey’s victory was a loss for the Kremlin. But Russia had leverage. Elchibey’s win came against the backdrop of the first Nagorno-Karabakh war. The Kremlin quietly supported Armenia, which won the war under Elchibey’s tenure. As a result, Azerbaijan’s aspiring democracy lost a large chunk of territory it considered its own.
- Georgia: The same pattern was at play in 2008, when Russian-backed forces invaded Georgia. After independence, former Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze became the small republic’s president. He sought to balance U.S. and Russian interests and restrained the desire of most Georgians to orient themselves to the West.
After a 2003 election marked by fraud, Georgians took to the streets in the so-called “Rose Revolution” and forced Shevardnadze’s resignation. Mikheil Saakashvili, a leader of the revolution, won a subsequent election with 96% of the vote in polls and 82% turnout. That made him Putin’s diplomatic enemy No. 1. Five years later, Putin got his revenge with the invasion of Georgia. In a precursor to the current Ukraine playbook, Putin sponsored and then recognized two breakaway republics: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. For Georgians and those outside, the lesson was clear: Choose democracy and lose territory.
- Armenia: Armenians did not listen. Culturally, Armenians and Russians have much in common, and, within the South Caucasus, Armenia was long the friendliest state to Moscow. Armenians, however, increasingly balked at the corruption of their leaders. In 2018, former journalist Nikol Pashinyan won power after Armenians, upset by Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan’s efforts to extend his term, took to the streets. Just over a year ago, Putin got his revenge when he stood down as Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev launched a surprise attack and, with the assistance of the Turkish Special Forces Command, conquered much of the territory Azerbaijan had lost. Once again, Putin showed that the punishment for democracy on his doorstep would be a loss of territory.
What is now underway in Ukraine fits this pattern to a T. Putin may always have craved Ukrainian territory, but in this, Ukraine is not alone. His choice to target Ukraine now is not a coincidence. He is demonstrating to all those who live along his borders — Belarusians, Kazakhs, Azerbaijanis who wish to escape the Aliyev family dictator, Moldovans, and others — that Russia is a sword of Damocles, ready to swoop down should their people opt for freedom and liberty.
Putin’s extreme sensitivity to democracy in what he considers Russia’s “near abroad” signals something else the West should exploit, though. It’s too late for what might have been. As for Zelensky, there has seldom been a world leader so roundly betrayed by the West, whether by Trump-era corruption or that within Biden’s own family.
Nevertheless, despite those who might argue Russians are culturally averse to democracy, Putin would not show such fear if that were actually true. He knows that the people power movements and that revolutions can spread and, if left unchecked, will eventually claim his regime as well. It should be in the interests of both Democrats and Republicans to stop sniping at each other and join together to teach Putin a lesson that millions of Russians will one day applaud.
Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
