Republican Sen. James Risch is proving the lie that President Joe Biden is tough on Russia.
Risch is leading efforts to ensure that Vladimir Putin’s Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline faces renewed congressional sanctions. They follow Joe “I’ll be tough on Putin” Biden’s waiving of sanctions earlier this year. Fortunately, Risch has introduced an amendment, now set for a vote on inclusion into the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act. The sanctions would return Nord Stream 2 to purgatory.
That would be very good news for two reasons.
First, because Putin intends to use Nord Stream 2 to extort political appeasement from Europe. Only in return for that appeasement would he provide energy supplies. This isn’t a theoretical concern. As the cold European winter begins, Putin’s extortion strategy is well underway. Nord Stream 2 would also see a major decline to energy transits through Ukraine, and thus Ukraine’s loss of billions of dollars in transit fees.
Its farcical pledges to the contrary, Germany, the primary European partner for Nord Stream 2, does not care about these concerns. This is unsurprising, of course. After all, Germany doesn’t care if Uyghurs are thrown into concentration camps, just as long as German car manufacturers get access to China. Similarly, Germany doesn’t care if Putin freezes Eastern Europe, just as long as Germans get cheap gas (incoming Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is a rare voice of strategic courage, here).
Put simply, it’s up to the United States to support Ukraine and those eastern-facing NATO allies (which, unlike Germany, invest in the alliance’s common defense and support NATO nuclear deterrence). These allies have the most to lose if Nord Stream 2 goes ahead. Ukraine, especially, which now faces a combined-arms Russian army on its borders.
But really, it’s up to the Senate to lead.
Biden appears to have forgotten his inaugural pledge to “repair our alliances” and “be a strong and trusted partner for peace, progress, and security.” Instead, working alongside Germany, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is lobbying Democratic senators against the reimposed Nord Stream 2 sanctions. And as Axios reports, Democrats appear to have struck a compromise. Most Democratic senators seem set to oppose Risch’s amendment and instead vote for an alternate amendment sponsored by Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez. Menendez’s bill would impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2, but only if and when Putin launches an attack on Ukraine.
Risch observed why this is silly. “If the goal is to deter Putin from attacking Ukraine,” the senator said, “and show him the U.S. is serious about punishing him for his malign influence around the world, then there is no choice. My amendment is the only one that will stop the pipeline from becoming operational; the Menendez amendment tells Putin it is OK to finish the pipeline and then attack Ukraine.”
Risch is right. Putin is a master of exploiting Western political fractures and uncertain pledges. If he launches an attack on Ukraine, he’ll gamble that Germany will use all its economic and political weight to ensure Nord Stream 2 is insulated from any future sanctions. It would be a credible assessment. In such circumstances, Germany would likely pressure its European Union partners to only accept U.S. calls for new sanctions on Russia on the condition that Nord Stream 2 is excluded from them. Considering Germany’s influence on EU financial flows, its ability to corral EU actions should not be underestimated.
Democratic senators should assess their voting intentions carefully. If gas flows through Nord Stream 2, NATO will have suffered a huge loss. And a preeminent U.S. adversary will have scored a major strategic win. Risch’s amendment should be made law.
