Prior to the inauguration of President Donald Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put forward the 3-3-3 policy agenda for the new administration.

He said that Trump’s policies would create the conditions for 3% GDP growth, a deficit reduction path so that in four years the federal deficit would fall from the current range of 6% to 7% of GDP to 3% of GDP, and pro-energy policies that would cause domestic oil production to increase by 3 million barrels a day. Today, not one of these policy goals seems remotely plausible. Because of Trump’s policies, the risk of a recession is rising. The federal deficit is increasing, and domestic oil companies are preparing to cut production.