China has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on its military in pursuit of two objectives: ensuring the United States loses its position as the dominant power in Asia to Communist China and ensuring the U.S. becomes a second-tier military power compared to Beijing. At present, China is on a clear path to achieving its goal by the end of this decade — if not sooner.
China’s first interest has been in showcasing so much firepower that no nation would want to start a conflict with the mighty Chinese Communist Party. Call it 21st-century deterrence. Beijing has built top-tier platforms like aircraft carriers, stealth fighters, missile defense platforms, world-class cyberwarfare capabilities, AI-based networks, and much more to ensure that a war against it would be one the U.S. could lose. China showcases these weapons and capabilities at almost every possible opportunity to shape the narrative that it is now an unbeatable military superpower. And while Beijing has not fought a major war since the late 1970s, China understands that perception is reality. It hopes to deter Washington from acting if President Xi Jinping moves on Taiwan or the South China Sea in the coming years.
Then there are China’s more practical weapons systems, those that would be used at scale to defeat Washington if war does come to the Pacific.
China has deployed all sorts of missile platforms, from hypersonic weapons and cruise missiles to aircraft carrier “killer” missiles, to disable or destroy Washington’s military bases and naval assets across the region. Communist Party military scholars openly discuss attacking U.S. forces in a “bolt from the blue” or Pearl Harbor-style attack. Thousands of missiles would be showered on any and all U.S. military assets as far out as Guam in a massive first strike. This action would pummel the U.S. military‘s capabilities in Asia. U.S. bases would be obliterated. Aircraft carriers and destroyers would be sunk or forced from the fight. Fighter and bomber aircraft would be destroyed before they could even launch. Communications satellites would be knocked out of orbit. Critical infrastructure like ports and airports would be wiped out.
Such a strike would be so massive that any missile defenses would be overwhelmed. Washington would then have to fight its way back into the region at an even greater cost and in a diminished capacity. Washington’s top military minds in the Pentagon, intelligence community, think tank community, and academia know all of this. They have repeatedly warned about the threat. Unfortunately, little has been done to confront it.
As debates rage over how best to help Taiwan if Xi does attack, the chances of Washington losing that epic conflict look increasingly high. We will only have ourselves to blame.
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Harry J. Kazianis is the president of the Rogue States Project and senior editor for 19FortyFive. You can follow him on Twitter @Grecianformula.
