We are all susceptible to self-destructive impulses, individually and collectively.
In 2016, the vice that doomed Democrats was the intoxicating sense of moral virtue that came with supporting a woman for president. Their ever-swelling self-approval that came from being “with her” blinded them to obvious political realities, like Hillary Clinton’s unique unpopularity.
Democrats were also blind to the political moment. The entire Western world was in the thrall of a populist revolt in the runup to 2016. Anti-establishment and anti-elite sentiments pervaded every particle of air and gigabyte of data from San Francisco to Scandinavia. Only the most thoroughly enbubbled bloc of voters could fail to detect this change in atmosphere.
But Democrats, ever hip-to-the-vibe, nominated someone whose very name is synonymous with “establishment”. It was her turn, they implored, as if the quality of “toxic entitlement” had tested well in focus groups.
They were so concerned with being on “the right side of history” that they altered history forever by nominating the worst possible candidate for the moment.
But just as Democrats fell victim to vainglory in 2016, Republicans are also in danger of death-by-spite in 2024. Former President Donald Trump is likely to win renomination following the expected red wave of 2022. To nominate Trump again would be a truly witless choice made out of seething resentment. It would carry no strategic benefit. It would make the GOP’s task of capturing the White House needlessly difficult.
And it would be the fulfillment of Democrats’ wildest dreams. Their efforts to brand the midterm elections as a referendum on Trump and Jan. 6 have been unsuccessful (“Democracy is at stake!” they wail as voters democratically reject Democrat rule), but they will have better luck if Trump is on the ticket.
In fact, Trump is Democrats’ best and only chance of holding on to power. Too many other fundamentals will be working against them.
For instance, a deep and long economic recession is looming. Just last week, the Bloomberg Economics probability model predicted the coming recession with 100% certainty — which is a lot of certainty. For Democrats, the timing couldn’t be worse. The second half of Joe Biden’s term will be defined by headlines about rising unemployment and a shrinking gross domestic product. This alone should make 2024 a layup for the GOP.
But there’s plenty more. Inflation currently sits at 8%, which is the highest level in 40 years, and despite aggressive maneuvering by the Federal Reserve, it is unlikely that consumer prices will drop significantly before 2024. The last time we saw inflation at these levels was during the second half of the Carter administration. And even then, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker’s lauded inflation-fighting measures didn’t produce results until well into Reagan’s first term. A similar pattern appears to be the best-case scenario for our current crisis.
In addition, American cities are experiencing a historic crime wave, and voters lay the blame squarely at the feet of “woke politicians” — with good reason. No city, for example, embodies “woke” politics more than Portland, Oregon. Its anti-police policies and rhetoric set the national standard. As a result, the city saw a number of its police facilities torched in 2020 (to the applause of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and other prominent Democrats), and Portland’s homicide rate has since risen a gobsmacking 207%.
Immigration is also a noxious issue for Democrats. Despite six years of fearmongering, even Hispanic voters have drifted to the right on immigration, and toward the GOP in general, as it relates to border security and limiting the number of immigrants and asylum-seekers. While white liberals with advanced degrees cry “racism!” at the idea of restricting immigration, Hispanic voters have become enamored of the idea.
The same dynamic took hold in the battle over merit-based admissions in schools among Asian voters. In deep-blue San Francisco, they went off the white-liberal script and ousted school board members who embraced radical affirmative action.
Since the beginning of the Trump years, the GOP’s most effective recruiting officers have all been Democrats. They can’t defend their own policies, and they know it.
The only hope that Democrats have in 2024 is Trump himself. Should the GOP primary voters succumb to their ever-simmering cultural resentment against coastal elites and nominate Trump, they will neutralize their every advantage. They will also saddle the party, including every down-ballot nominee, with a high disapproval rating that won’t budge anytime soon. Just as Hillary was the only person who could have lost to Trump in 2016, Trump is the only Republican who could lose in 2024.
Trump only ever made sense as a big orange middle finger. So, you want to destroy our manufacturing sector even further by entering us into the Trans-Pacific Partnership? So, you want to look the other way as fentanyl pours across our southern border? And lecture us about gender-neutral bathrooms in the process? Well, here’s our response.
The middle-finger approach worked in 2016, but that’s only because Democrats nominated someone even less appealing than a one-finger salute.
But now is not the time for a middle finger. We’ve had enough over-the-top rancor in this grotesque political era. Now is the time for a new morning. Republicans, with a deep bench of candidates and a highly favorable climate, are poised to deliver a Reagan-level transformation.
All that stands in the way is a GOP primary electorate blinded by resentment and revenge.
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Peter Laffin is a writer in New England. Follow him on Twitter at @Laffin_Out_Loud.
