US military preparing for potential conflict with China over Taiwan

LLOYD AUSTIN DISAVOWS ‘RED LINES’ IN POTENTIAL UKRAINE AND TAIWAN CONFLICTS

Ratner’s comments underscore the possibility that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would bring People’s Liberation Army forces into conflict with the U.S. military, but he opined that an explicit pledge to intervene “would not meaningfully strengthen” American efforts to deter China from launching such an assault. Nevertheless, the hearing showcased bipartisan agreement that the conquest of the island by China would “significantly damage vital U.S. interests and alliances in the Indo-Pacific,” as a senior Republican put it.

“It would give China a platform in the First Island Chain to dominate the Western Pacific, and threaten, indeed, the U.S. homeland,” said Idaho Sen. James Risch, the top Republican on the committee, while outlining the consequences of a Chinese conquest of Taiwan. “The consequences for Japan’s security, and therefore the U.S.-Japan alliance, are hard to overstate. Semiconductor supply chains would fall into China’s hands. And it would embolden China in other territorial disputes, including with India and in the South China Sea.”

Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping has adopted a more assertive posture with respect to territories on Beijing’s periphery. Chinese warplanes have conducted an unprecedented number of sorties around Taiwan, and Xi has overseen a major crackdown on Hong Kong while claiming sovereignty over vast swathes of the South China Sea, one of the most important waterways in the world.

“Unfortunately, although the PRC publicly advocates for peaceful unification with Taiwan, leaders in Beijing have never renounced the use of military aggression,” Ratner testified. “In fact, the PLA is likely preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by force, while simultaneously attempting to deter, delay, or deny third-party intervention on Taiwan’s behalf.”

Those policies have engendered anxiety in democratic capitals around the region and spurred an overhaul of Japanese defense policy, as U.S. and allied leaders who coordinated defense and diplomatic maneuvers might persuade China not to risk an attack.

“A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency and therefore an emergency for the Japan-U.S. alliance,” former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a political heavyweight within the Japanese legislature despite his decision to relinquish the premiership, said last week. “People in Beijing, President Xi Jinping in particular, should never have a misunderstanding in recognizing this.”

Sen. Bill Hagerty, a Tennessee Republican and former U.S. ambassador to Japan, quoted that statement of Abe’s before suggesting that a Taiwan crisis would “also represent an emergency for our alliances” with South Korea and Australia. He then asked Ratner to assess Taiwan’s strategic significance to the security of the region.

“It’s essential,” Ratner replied. “I would describe our partnership with Taiwan as an anchor to our network of allies and partners.”

Those statements dovetailed with Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Menendez’s overarching purpose for holding the hearing.

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“There should be no doubt or ambiguity about the nature, depth, and strength of that commitment, or of our endurance as an Indo-Pacific power, or of our determination as a people and as a nation to stand with those, like Taiwan, who share our interests and our values,” the New Jersey Democrat said. “Beijing should have no doubt or question that any cross-Strait military or kinetic contingency directly affects the United States and our interests and values, directly affects our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances, and there should be no doubt, question, or misunderstanding that we will respond appropriately.”