If Russian military forces thrust deeper into Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will evidently have calculated that Moscow can withstand new financial sanctions and the small increase of NATO troops along Russia’s borders.
The Russian president knows that NATO will not fight for Ukraine and that Germany and France will again divide the alliance by seeking a speedy return to “business as usual” with Russia. The only move that can freeze Moscow’s ambitions for its former colonies is a major strategic shift by Washington to deimperialize Russia.
Western governments have attempted various defensive and reactive policies to curtail Moscow’s expansionism. Their failures have reinforced Kremlin perceptions that the West is weak, divided, and incapable. The only strategy that can dent Putin’s self-confidence must focus on the future of Russia itself. Such an approach needs a clear objective and methodology. The ultimate goal would be to reverse Russia’s neoimperial offensives by helping its citizens transform the state into a genuine federation that accepts its neighbors as independent countries that decide on their own international alliances.
However, as this “transformation scenario” becomes increasingly improbable because of Kremlin resistance to political reform, U.S. policy planners must prepare for an alternative option: the “rupture scenario.” When federalism and pluralism fail to materialize in the midst of economic decline and political uncertainty, separatist voices will gain traction. The Kremlin will face diminishing support for its foreign aggression as domestic politics become more conflictive, resources thinly stretched, and citizens no longer acquiescent. It is worth remembering that only a few years before its collapse, the Soviet Union was engaged in numerous foreign military escapades, controlled half of Europe, and continued to trumpet its economic superiority over the West while disguising its growing existential crisis.
In a recent video conference, Putin rejected a proposal to let Russian regions secede if they no longer want to be part of the state. He warned of a repeat of the bloody wars in a collapsing Yugoslavia during the 1990s and revealed that there were 2,000 territorial claims nationwide that should be treated “very seriously,” as they could divide up Russia. Putin’s admission indicates that the country’s domestic conditions are deteriorating on several vital fronts: economic, demographic, social, regional, ethnic, and political.
This provides Washington with new opportunities for a multidimensional strategy that supports political pluralism, democratic reform, minority rights, genuine federalism, and self-determination among dozens of Russia’s regions and nations. It needs to involve all NATO allies and partners closely, particularly those bordering Russia, and shield them from any negative security consequences. And it must plan for the emergence of new political entities.
The challenges of transforming Soviet republics and satellites into independent states 30 years ago can be replicated by helping to reconstruct Russia’s republics and regions. Such an approach does not discount cooperative endeavors with the Kremlin in dealing with nuclear arms, climate change, or pandemics. But a strategy based only on common global threats will disarm Western capabilities in managing the multiregional consequences of Russia’s turmoil.
It is in the U.S.’s national security interests to help Russia either federalize or fracture, decentralize or disintegrate. Neglecting Russia’s escalating domestic problems that can lead to fragmentation will prove more damaging to Western interests than preparing to manage the international repercussions of them. The collapse of the Soviet Bloc and the Soviet Union over 30 years ago should serve as a poignant lesson that geopolitical revolutions occur regardless of Kremlin disinformation or the West’s belief in a permanent status quo.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks is co-authored with Margarita Assenova. His upcoming book is titled Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture.
