Vladimir Putin doesn’t appear concerned over the new Western sanctions that might follow a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine.
On the contrary, Putin’s regime is escalating its threats. Russia now says that unless the West agrees a legal commitment not to expand NATO, it will be forced into a “military response” that may include the deployment of intermediate range nuclear missiles (which Russia developed in breach of an arms control treaty) in Kaliningrad. That would put nuclear-capable missiles on the borders of Lithuania and Poland, and in strike range of every European NATO member state. Considering that an agreement not to expand NATO would utterly undermine the principle of democratic sovereignty — something the Biden administration celebrated with an international summit just last week — Russia has clearly seized the strategic initiative.
It’s now clear that Putin senses Biden is someone who can be molded to his will.
Seeking the attention of State Department cable writers in Moscow, Russian state TV is praising Biden over his concessionary stance. On Monday’s episode of the “60 minutes” evening discussion show, Biden and Putin were repeatedly presented as serious negotiators deserving of praise. In contrast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who took a tough stance with Putin in a call on Monday, were presented as “clowns.”
Again, it’s not hard to see why the Russians are confident.
While Western governments are trumpeting the prospect of “massive consequences” should Putin invade, there are very few specifics on the table. The Biden administration suggests that this secrecy is a prudent means of denying Russia the ability to prepare countermeasures. In reality, however, it signals the White House’s fear of agitating Putin and a broader Western division over what new sanctions might entail.
At the same time, Biden is encouraging Putin by slow rolling new military aid packages to Ukraine while undercutting Kyiv’s sovereignty. Considering Biden’s appeasement in other areas, Putin has cause to escalate his demands. Things aren’t better in Europe. While new German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock wants to bolster support for Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is determined to protect the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from inclusion in any sanctions package. Other complications abound. Its rhetoric aside, the UK is unlikely to support widespread sanctions on the pro-Putin oligarchs who reside in London. Similarly, France has sought to dilute sanctions already enforce against Russia. President Emmanuel Macron is unlikely to support new sanctions that would negatively affect France’s export sector.
Put simply, then, Ukraine remains where it has always been since this crisis began: out in the cold, largely alone. Putin has multiplying reasons either to keep up the extortion or to strike. As he contemplates next steps on Taiwan, Xi Jinping may take note as well.
