Democrats’ summer surge in Maine augurs well for their efforts across the rest of the Senate map this fall.
Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon is widening her lead on 23-year Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, according to a Colby College poll this week. And pollsters found that’s because Collins’s approval rating is dipping, in part because of President Trump.
Colby College political science professor Sandy Maisel explained Trump was casting a shadow over Collins’s fifth reelection campaign. And that foreshadows down-ballot problems for other Senate Republican contenders sharing a ticket with the president as the GOP fights to continue controlling the chamber.
Maisel told the Washington Examiner that Gideon was exploiting the dynamic in her bid, tensions exacerbated by Democrats’ intense dislike of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
While 44% of respondents told Colby College pollsters they’d back Gideon, 39% said the same for Collins. That’s a shift from five months ago (before the coronavirus lockdowns) when Colby College had the rivals in a statistical tie. Researchers attributed the movement to softening support from younger voters, women, and those who live in larger towns and cities. Respondents also said they believed Collins was “too close” to Trump.
Once celebrated for her independence, Collins sided with Trump and Senate Republican leadership over tax cuts, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, and impeachment. She’s often hounded by congressional reporters for her honest assessments of the Trump administration. But she was widely mocked for claiming Trump learned “a pretty big lesson” from impeachment before being corrected by the president himself. Perhaps distancing herself from the White House occupant, Maine Democrats have been playing up how she’s been coy so far this cycle about whether she’ll cast a ballot for him on Nov. 3.
Maisel listed Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, and North Carolina as other states where Trump could be a liability for his colleagues as well.
“[They] are all threatened by candidates who have good name recognition, have raised huge sums of money, and who are tying incumbent Republicans to the president,” he said. “You even see that in states where Democrats have less chance of winning, at least in my view, but where they are running credible campaigns that are detracting GOP resources from the states most in need — both Georgia seats, South Carolina, Texas, and even Kentucky.”
The Cook Political Report announced new Senate race ratings last week that increase Democrats’ chances of clinching the chamber and buttress aspects of Maisel’s argument.
The nonpartisan outlet moved the Arizona race from its “toss up” column to its leaning Democratic counterpart and the Minnesota and New Mexico contests from likely Democratic to being solidly in the party’s ledger.
Simultaneously, the Cook Political Report transposed Iowa and Georgia’s regularly scheduled elections from leaning Republican to too close to call.
But a GOP aide reminded the Washington Examiner that Colorado was firmly in the toss-up category, as were Maine, Montana, and North Carolina. Kentucky, South Carolina, and Texas remained characterized as likely GOP.
Democrats need to flip three to four GOP-held seats, depending on the presidential race, to regain power in the Senate. Morning Consult’s first senatorial polls of the season indicate some seats could pay dividends, such as Arizona and North Carolina. Others, including Colorado and Georgia, seem to require more investment.
In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly’s ahead of Republican Sen. Martha McSally by 16 percentage points, 52% to 36%, according to Morning Consult. That lead’s more than twice his RealClearPolitics average of 6.8 points.
Meanwhile, Democrat Cal Cunningham is 9 points in front of North Carolina GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, 46% to 37%. Cunningham averages a 6.2-point margin, by RealClearPolitics’s count.
Although newly minted Democratic nominee John Hickenlooper’s 6 points ahead of Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, 48% to 42%, that’s narrower than other polling that gives Hickenlooper a double-digit advantage.
Similarly, GOP Sen. David Perdue maintains a 3-point edge on Democrat Jon Ossoff, 45% to 42%. Again, that’s slimmer than the average 5-point berth assigned to him by RealClearPolitics.
For Maisel, Republicans could correct their course if Trump changes his stance toward the outbreak or woos back suburban voters turned off by his divisive rhetoric.
But in a memo released this week, the National Republican Senatorial Committee suggests their biggest weapon is Democrats themselves.
“Voters despise the policies championed by today’s Democrat party,” the memo states.
It adds: “Between a favorable map and $200 million spent cycle to date, Democrats have always had a numbers advantage in the battle for the Senate majority. Despite that, and an incredibly favorable environment, the race for the Senate majority is still dead even. That is a testament to the strength of our candidates.”
NRSC spokesman Nathan Brand touted how Collins had demonstrated bipartisanship throughout her tenure.
“Meanwhile, Democrat Sara Gideon can’t be trusted, especially now that voters know that when she was approached about an alleged sexual predator serving in her caucus, she did nothing. The more Mainers learn about Gideon, the more they know they can’t risk gambling on someone with such a dishonest and unethical record,” he said.
Yet, Helen Kalla, a spokeswoman for Senate Democrats’ campaign organization, is confident her party can swing Maine and the other states based on “Trump’s reckless agenda.” In addition to the pandemic and tax code reform, she said healthcare was top of the minds of voters.
“It’s too late for an election-year makeover for these vulnerable incumbents — they can’t escape their toxic records of gutting healthcare and capitulating to an increasingly unpopular president instead of standing up for their states,” she said.
