A Minnesota district that House Republicans flipped in 2018 is at risk of returning to Democratic hands, according to a new internal poll.
A Victoria Research & Consulting poll conducted for Democrats’ House Majority PAC found Thursday that Democratic challenger Dan Feehan was leading GOP incumbent Rep. Jim Hagedorn by two percentage points, 48% to 46%.
Hagedorn won the 1st Congressional District in 2018 over Feehan after Democrat Tim Walz left the southern Minnesota seat to run for governor successfully. Hagedorn’s margin of victory two years ago was razor thin. He bested Feehan, a U.S. Army captain and acting assistant secretary of defense, by 0.2 points or 575 votes, despite what pundits described as a “blue wave” election cycle.
Thursday’s findings mirror a Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group poll fielded in June that had Feehan ahead by a single point. But a Harper Polling study released that month gave Hagedorn a 16-point advantage.
Victoria Research & Consulting’s survey also found presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is in front of President Trump in the district, 50% to 43%. Trump dominated there by 15 points in 2016.
Minnesota, more generally, offers Biden and Trump the opportunity to pick up 10 electoral votes in 2020. RealClearPolitics puts Biden ahead by an average of 11.4 points.
Victoria Research & Consulting interviewed 511 active voters registered in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District between July 19-23 via landlines and cellphones. The firm’s results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points.
