‘A STEP BACKWARD’: After a year and a half of negotiations, which resulted in a “final text” of an agreement for Iran to return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, Tehran’s latest demands have effectively sunk prospects for any agreement in the near term.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitted as much in comments this week in Mexico City. “Iran’s response to the proposal put forward by the European Union is clearly a step backward and makes prospects for an agreement in the near term, I would say, unlikely,” Blinken said. “Iran seems either unwilling or unable to do what is necessary to reach an agreement, and they continue to try to introduce extraneous issues to the negotiation that make an agreement less likely.”
“Iran continues to insist the International Atomic Energy Agency close its investigation into suspected undeclared, and illegal, Iranian efforts to build a nuclear weapon — a probe which is wholly separate from Iran’s obligations under a renewed nuclear deal,” according to an analysis by Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
WHAT’S THE DEAL WITH THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL?
‘THE LIMIT OF OUR FLEXIBILITY’: Britain, France, and Germany issued a joint statement last weekend questioning whether Iran was serious in seeking a deal that would reinstate limitations on its nuclear program along with intrusive inspections to ensure it was not building a nuclear weapon.
“While we were edging closer to an agreement, Iran reopened separate issues that relate to its legally binding international obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and its NPT safeguards agreement,” the statement said. “This latest demand raises serious doubts as to Iran’s intentions and commitment to a successful outcome.”
“In this final package, the Coordinator made additional changes that took us to the limit of our flexibility,” the three U.S. allies said. “Unfortunately, Iran has chosen not to seize this critical diplomatic opportunity. Instead, Iran continues to escalate its nuclear program way beyond any plausible civilian justification.”
CONGRESSIONAL CONCERN: While the negotiations are technically paused, and return to the deal appears dead for now, there is bipartisan concern that the Biden administration may try to skirt requirements of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, which requires a vote after a congressional review.
A House resolution introduced by Reps. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) and Joe Wilson (R-SC) would require the Biden administration to immediately provide Congress with the draft text of the deal with Iran and any related or side agreements.
Foreign Relations Committee Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), an opponent of the original nuclear deal, said in Israel this week that his committee would review and vote on any agreement.
“The administration has made the commitment that if they enter into an agreement to follow on from what was the JCPOA, they will submit it to Congress and we will review it,” Menendez said at a press conference. “Whether that vote meets the threshold under the law to nullify that agreement is another question.”
FIFTY LAWMAKERS, MOSTLY DEMOCRATS, ‘DEEPLY CONCERNED’ ABOUT IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada at the Pentagon at 11 a.m.
UKRAINE CONSOLIDATING GAINS: In his latest video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Ukrainian forces have retaken approximately 8,000 square kilometers of territory (almost 5,000 square miles) formerly occupied by Russia, and that half of that had been “stabilized.”
“As of now, stabilization measures have been completed in the districts with a total area of more than 4,000 square kilometers. Stabilization continues in the liberated territory of approximately the same size,” Zelensky said. “Remnants of occupiers and sabotage groups are being detected, collaborators are being detained and full security is being restored.”
RUSSIA NOT MOBILIZING ADDITIONAL FORCES DESPITE UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE
‘BE QUICK, BUT DON’T HURRY!’: The former commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe has some words of caution as Ukraine revels in its stunning rout of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region. Citing advice he received from two of his mentors, retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling tweeted, “Know when to go fast & when to slow down,” and “Be quick, but don’t hurry!”
Hertling says Ukrainian commanders need to be careful not to overplay their hand as Russian forces are on the run, and realize they now must hold on to the gains made over the past two weeks.
“In truth, there are some elements of Ukraine’s force that can’t ‘keep up’ with the front line fighters. That’s not an insult, it’s an understanding of the UA force,” he tweeted. “Right now, UA field commanders — while excited about gains — must consider operational tempo.”
“My experience in combat — as well as at our Army’s national training center, where we study this — is that units will begin to fail if they aren’t rested on day 5 of an offensive. And commanders/leaders start making really bad decisions after 3 days of little/no sleep,” Hertling writes in a long Twitter thread. “UA forces are whipped right now. Not just caused by movement & lack of sleep, but emotions associated with fighting. I anticipate some needed ‘pauses.’”
UKRAINE SAYS IT SHOT DOWN RUSSIAN-ACQUIRED IRANIAN DRONE IN KHARKIV
THANKS, BUT NO TANKS: What Ukraine desperately needs right now to press its advantage and deliver a coup de grace to Russian forces is heavy armor, and it’s pressing Germany to provide its Leopard tanks and Marder armored vehicles, so far to no avail.
“Disappointing signals from Germany while Ukraine needs Leopards and Marders now — to liberate people and save them from genocide,” tweeted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba after a joint appearance in Kyiv Saturday with his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock. “Not a single rational argument on why these weapons can not be supplied, only abstract fears and excuses. What is Berlin afraid of that Kyiv is not?”
Germany has noted that so far, no country — including the U.S., which is Ukraine’s primary weapons supplier — is providing modern main battle tanks to Ukraine.
“Germany needs to understand that the timeline for the end of the war is dependent on its position,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Zelensky, told The Washington Post in an interview Tuesday. “The faster we receive this or that weapon from Germany, the faster Germany finally breaks this feeling of closeness with Russia, the faster the war will end.”
PUTIN REJECTED PEACE DEAL STRUCK WITH UKRAINE AS INVASION BEGAN: REPORT
PANIC IN RUSSIAN OCCUPIED UKRAINE: In its latest assessment of the war in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War says the successful Ukrainian operation that retook the Kharkiv region is sparking panic in other Russian occupied regions, including in Crimea, which has been under Russian control since 2014.
“The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence reported that Russian authorities in Crimea urged their families to flee to Russia, while employees of the Russian Federal Security Service are selling their homes on the peninsula and are urgently evacuating their families due to Ukrainian counter-offensives,” the Washington-based think tank reports.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has effectively acknowledged the defeat of its forces in the north and is furiously working to shift the blame for the debacle from Russian President Vladimir Putin to his military commanders, according to the ISW.
“Kremlin sources are now working to clear Putin of any responsibility for the defeat, instead blaming the loss of almost all of occupied Kharkiv Oblast on underinformed military advisors within Putin’s circle,” the ISW says. “One member of the Kremlin’s Council for Interethnic Relations, Bogdan Bezpalko, even stated that military officials who had failed to see the concentration of Ukrainian troops and equipment and disregarded Telegram channels that warned of the imminent Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv Oblast should have their heads ‘lying on Putin’s desk.’”
OPINION: WHY VLADIMIR PUTIN’S PRESIDENCY REMAINS STABLE IN SPITE OF EVERYTHING
SPACE CHIEF NOMINEE: CHINA THE ‘MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT’: At yesterday’s Senate confirmation hearing for Lt. Gen. B. Chance “Salty” Saltzman to be the nation’s second chief of space operations, Saltzman testified that China poses “the most immediate threat’ to U.S. dominance in space.
“First and foremost, the Chinese are aggressively pursuing capabilities that can disrupt, degrade, and ultimately even destroy our satellite capabilities, and disrupt our ground infrastructure,” Saltzman told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“They have watched how we perform joint force operations, they know how critical the U.S. relies — how critical U.S. space capabilities are to the joint force, they’ve learned from that, and they recognize that it is an asymmetric advantage of theirs to go after our space capabilities and deny them to the joint force,” he said in response to a question from Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) “And they’ve invested heavily in demonstrated capabilities that can deny us this.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Putin rejected peace deal struck with Ukraine as invasion began: Report
Washington Examiner: Russia not mobilizing additional forces despite Ukrainian counteroffensive
Washington Examiner: Ukraine says it shot down Russian-acquired Iranian drone in Kharkiv
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why Vladimir Putin’s presidency remains stable in spite of everything
Washington Examiner: Republicans slam Biden over plea deal negotiations with al Qaeda 9/11 plotters
Washington Examiner: Opinion: 21 years after 9/11, Congress still isn’t ready for a doomsday scenario
Washington Examiner: Military service members feeling inflation awaiting pay increase
Washington Examiner: Top members of Congress spotted going to secure room with CIA director
AP: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy visits recently retaken, devastated city
Washington Post: Rapid loss of territory in Ukraine reveals spent Russian military
Washington Post: In Ukraine, Putin Is Refusing To Lose
New York Times: After Gloomy War Game, U.S. Helped Ukraine Find a Better Strategy
Wall Street Journal: Zelensky aims to use battlefield gains to get more weapons and deepen security ties
New York Times: Biden Faces Dual Threat: Xi And Putin
Reuters: U.S. Considers China Sanctions To Deter Taiwan Action, Taiwan Presses EU
Yonhap: S. Korea, U.S. To Discuss ‘Concrete’ Deterrence Steps Against N.K. Threats In This Week’s Talks: Official
19fortyfive.com: Could Ukraine’s Big Win over Russia Mean Putin Is Overthrown?
19fortyfive.com: Is the Russian Military Just Giving Up in Ukraine? It Feels Like It
19fortyfive.com: Russia May Have Had Torture Chambers in Ukraine
Air Force Magazine: DOD Needs $42B to Overcome Inflation in 2023, Study Says
Air Force Magazine: Saltzman: Space Force Must Invest in Test and Training Technology
AP: Military Renaming Panel Advises Removal Of Confederate Statue At Arlington National Cemetery
Washington Post: Panel: Erasing Confederate Symbols From U.S. Military To Cost $62 Million
USNI News: Commission Recommends Renaming Two Navy Ships With Confederate Ties
Air Force Magazine: Thunderbirds, Warbirds Flyovers Planned to Celebrate 75th Anniversary of USAF
19fortyfive.com: Meet the Block V Virginia-Class Submarine: The Navy’s Best Sub Ever?
The Cipher Brief: How AI and ML are Impacting DoD and CIA’s Future
The Cipher Brief: 5 Gals Who Paved a ‘Way’ at CIA
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 14
8 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “The Ukraine War: Lessons for Taiwan,” with Taiwan Parliament member Freddy Lim; Anna Fotyga, member of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group; Lai I-Chung, president of the Prospect Foundation; and Helena Legarda, lead analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies https://www.gmfus.org/event/ukraine-war-lessons-taiwan
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual event: “State of Defense: Navy,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday https://d1stateofdefense.com/
1 p.m. — Federal News Network virtual 2022 Cloud Exchange forum: “National security and law enforcement,” with Nick Ward, CIO of the Drug Enforcement Administration; and James Wolff, CIO of the National Nuclear Security Administration, delivers keynote remarks https://federalnewsnetwork.com/cme-event/federal-insights
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council discussion with the families of flight PS752 victims, shot down by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards on a January 8, 2020 flight from Tehran to Kyiv, Ukraine with Amirali Alavi, director and chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s Legal Committee; Kourosh Doustshenas, director and chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s Government and Stakeholder Relations Committee; Navaz Ebrahim, director and chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s Public Relations Committee; Hamed Esmaeilion, president and spokesperson of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s; Javad Soleimani, chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s Fact-Finding Committee; Alborz Sadeghi, member of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim’s Legal Committee; and Haydee Dijkstal, barrister at 33 Bedford Row RSVP at [email protected]
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 15
8 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “The U.S.-Australia Alliance on the Anniversary of AUKUS,” with Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis.; Andrew Hastie, member of the Parliament of Australia; Brian Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson; and Peter Rough, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2145-the-us-australia-alliance
9 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “My ‘Hell’ in Russian Captivity,” with Yuliia Paievska, Ukrainian veteran and volunteer paramedic; and Hanna Hopko, co-founder of the International Center for Ukrainian Victory and former Ukraine Parliament chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs https://www.youtube.com/HelsinkiCommission
10 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Air Force Gen. Anthony J. Cotton to be commander, U.S. Strategic Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. National Harbor, Maryland — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance 2022 Intelligence and National Security Summit, with Jeanette McMillan, assistant director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center’s Supply Chain and Cyber Directorate; Halimah Najieb-Locke, deputy assistant Defense secretary for industrial base resilience; Principal Deputy Defense CIO Kelly Fletcher; Central Intelligence Agency CTO Nand Mulchandani; Margie Palmieri, deputy chief digital and AI officer at the Defense Department Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office; Lori Wade, intelligence community chief data officer and assistant director of national intelligence for data and partnership interoperability in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; Greg Ryckman, deputy director for global integration at the Defense Intelligence Agency; Brig. Gen. Gregory Gagnon, director of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance at the Space Force; Leonel Garciga, director of information management at the Army; Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback, deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and cyber effects operations at the Air Force; Coast Guard Assistant Commandant For Intelligence Rear Adm. Rebecca Ore; Maj. Gen. William Seely, intelligence director at the Marine Corps; and Vice Adm. Jeff Trussler, deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare https://intelsummit.org/#
11 a.m. — Middle East Institute online event: “Beyond Post-Desert Storm: The Future of the U.S.-Kuwait Security Partnership,” with Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security; retired Army Gen. Michael Garrett, former commanding general of U.S. Army Forces Command; and Bilal Saab, MEI senior fellow and director of the Defense and Security Program https://www.mei.edu/events/beyond-post-desert-storm
12 p.m. — New America virtual discussion: “Leaving Afghanistan,” with Humaira Rahbin, Afghanistan observatory scholar at New America; Mir Abdullah Miri, Afghanistan observatory scholar at New America; Vanessa Gezari, national security editor at the Intercept; and Candace Rondeaux, director of New America’s Future Frontlines https://www.newamerica.org/international-security
12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What next for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?” with Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association; Nasser Hadian, professor of political science at the University of Tehran; and Azadeh Zamirirad, deputy head of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs’ Africa and Middle East Division https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/what-next
2 p.m. — House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing: Putin’s Proxies: Examining Russia’s Use of Private Military Companies,” with testimony from Kimberly Marten, professor, Political Science Department, Barnard College, Columbia University; Catrina Doxsee, associate director, Transnational Threats Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Joseph Siegle, director of research, Africa Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University https://oversight.house.gov/news/press-releases
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 16
10:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Americans held hostage abroad,” with Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
11 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Russia in the Arctic,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Doug Jones; Principal Defense Department Director for the Arctic and Global Resilience Greg Pollock; former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands; Rebecca Pincus, assistant professor at the U.S. Naval War College; Katarzyna Zysk, professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies; and Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow at CNAS https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-russia-in-the-arctic
1 p.m. 1200 South Hayes St., Arlington, Virginia — House Intelligence Committee Republicans and RAND Corporation panel discussion: “Preparedness Against Biological Weapons,” with Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH) top Republican on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH); Jason Matheny, president and CEO, RAND Corporation; Luciana Borio, senior fellow for global health, Council on Foreign Relations; Asha George, executive director, Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense; Daniel Gerstein, senior policy researcher, RAND; John Parachini, senior international and defense researcher, RAND; and Patricia Stapleton, political scientist, RAND https://www.rand.org/events/2022/09/16/register.html
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Space is truly a critical domain for U.S. interests so we must be clear eyed in our understanding that our strategic competitors have invested heavily in fielding systems capable of disrupting, degrading and even destroying our space capabilities.”
Lt. Gen. B. Chance “Salty” Saltzman, nominee to be the next chief of space operations, in Senate testimony Tuesday.
