‘REGROUP, REST, REFIT’: As the war in Ukraine approaches the five-month mark, Russian forces in the eastern Donbas region appear to be licking their wounds as they prepare for a mid-summer offensive to secure more gains in Ukraine’s industrial heartland.
“Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine,” according to the latest analysis from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. “Russian forces continue to regroup, rest, refit, and reconstitute,” while conducting limited probing attacks and bombarding “critical areas to set conditions for future ground offensives … the timing of which remains unclear.”
The latest British intelligence assessment predicts that “Russian forces will likely focus on taking several small towns during the coming week, including Siversk and Dolyna on the approaches to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk,” while noting that a growing insurgency is making governing in occupied areas more problematic.
“Anti-Russian sentiment in occupied Ukraine is leading to Russian and pro-Russian officials being targeted,” the British Defense Ministry tweeted. “The Russian-appointed administration in Velykyy Burluk acknowledged that one of its mayors was killed on 11 July 2022 by a car bombing.”
NOT ENOUGH HIMARS: The Ukrainians have been touting their ability to strike at Russian positions far behind the front lines, thanks to its growing arsenal of U.S.-supplied HIMARS, the Lockheed Martin-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, that can hit a target 40 miles away with satellite-guided accuracy.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry tweeted a meme taunting the Russians with the tagline: “They inspire us. They terrify the enemy. They are HIMARS.”
“The occupiers have already felt very well what modern artillery is, and they will not have a safe rear anywhere on our land,” said President Volodymyr Zelensky in his nightly video address. “Russian soldiers — and we know this from interceptions of their conversations — are truly afraid of our armed forces.”
The U.S. has pledged 12 of the high-tech systems, but it’s unclear how many have made it to the battlefield. In any event, a dozen HIMARS is a faction of what Ukraine needs to win, argues retired Army Maj. John Spencer, chairman of urban warfare studies at the Madison Policy Forum.
“They need 50. They need 60 to even match, in any sense of the word, what they’re facing with Russia in front of their faces,” Spencer told the Washington Examiner. “In order for Russia to be defeated in Ukraine, nobody has given them even half of what they need.”
RUSSIA ‘EXPENDING THEIR RESOURCES’: The Kremlin has confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Iran next week, ostensibly to attend a meeting with the leaders of Iran and Turkey to discuss the situation in Syria.
Putin’s travel to Tehran comes after U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters at the White House Monday that U.S. intelligence believes the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with “up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs, on an expedited timeline.”
The fact Russia needs military assistance from Iran shows that its own arsenal is depleted. “They are expending their resources at an accelerated rate,” said John Kirby, the White House national security coordinator for strategic communications, in an appearance on CNN yesterday. “They’re leaning toward a nation like Iran, a nation that hasn’t condemned their invasion of Ukraine, hasn’t tried to put pressure on Mr. Putin’s war-making machine, and quite frankly, appears to be willing to assist in his efforts inside Ukraine.”
While some of the Iranian drones could be armed, Kirby said their effect on the war is uncertain. “It’s not a drone-versus-drone war … It depends on what these UAVs are used for,” Kirby told CNN.
“We have already provided hundreds of UAVs to Ukraine. We’re in constant conversation with them about their needs, and I certainly wouldn’t rule out additional deliveries of useful UAVs. But it’s not just about one capability; it really is all the capabilities taken in sum, given the kind of fighting that they’re doing in the Donbas,” Kirby said. “We’re trying to give them a suite of systems … allow them to better fight the Russians in this war in the Donbas.”
IRAN SEEKS TO HELP RUSSIA WITH WAR IN UKRAINE, WHITE HOUSE SAYS
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will be taking a day off this coming Friday, July 15. We hope to be back in your inbox and online Monday, July 18.
HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin hosts two allied defense ministers for meetings at the Pentagon and a third tomorrow. Austin meets with Netherlands MOD Kajsa Ollongren at 10:30 a.m., and with Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Richard Marles at 1:30 p.m.
Tomorrow Austin is scheduled to meet with Italian Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini at the Pentagon.
ONE LESS ISIS LEADER: The White House announced yesterday that the U.S. conducted a successful drone strike that took out one of the top five ISIS leaders in Syria. The attack targeted two men in northwest Syria, but only Maher al-Agal was confirmed dead, according to U.S. officials.
“His death in Syria takes a key terrorist off the field and significantly degrades the ability of ISIS to plan, resource, and conduct their operations in the region,” said President Joe Biden in a statement. “And, like the U.S. operation in February that eliminated ISIS’s overall leader, it sends a powerful message to all terrorists who threaten our homeland and our interests around the world: The United States will be relentless in its efforts to bring you to justice.”
Biden said the successful strike was “the culmination of determined and meticulous intelligence work,” and validated his policy of withdrawing combat troops from the region. “It also demonstrates that the United States does not require thousands of troops in combat missions to identify and eliminate threats to our country.“
US MILITARY KILLS ISIS LEADER IN SYRIA DRONE STRIKE
BIDEN IN ISRAEL: President Biden arrives in Jerusalem this morning, where he will be greeted by Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, with Iran high on the agenda. Traveling with the president are Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan.
“So as far as we’re concerned, Iran has a choice: It can either come back on a compliance-for-compliance basis to the [2015 Iran nuclear deal], or it will face increasing pressure from the United States and increasing isolation from the international community,” Sullivan told reporters Monday.
“We have indicated that we believe there is a deal on the table,” said Sullivan, “Iran should step forward and take that deal. If they don’t, we’re not standing still. Even as we speak, we’ve already introduced two rounds of sanctions to crack down on their effort to evade the existing sanctions regime.”
Ahead of Biden’s arrival, the two leaders released a joint statement pledging increased cooperation on the use of emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence.
“We pledge to boost our mutual innovation ecosystems, to deepen bilateral engagements, advance and protect critical and emerging technologies in accordance with our national interests, democratic principles and human rights, and to address geostrategic challenges,” the statement said.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL FACES UNCERTAIN FUTURE AS TEHRAN SELLS WEAPONS TO RUSSIA
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US military kills ISIS leader in Syria drone strike
Washington Examiner: Protesters demand Belgium nix prisoner swap returning attempted bomber to Iran
Washington Examiner: Iran nuclear deal faces uncertain future as Tehran sells weapons to Russia
Washington Examiner: SEE IT: John Bolton admits he helped plan coups in other countries
Washington Examiner: Experts defend much-criticized oil sales to China as required by US law
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Fearing military constraint, China warns Japan against constitutional changes
Washington Post: Recording reveals life in captivity for American held by Russian group
Washington Post: Ukrainians from occupied Luhansk struggle to make new lives elsewhere
Wall Street Journal: Military Depots Struck In Areas Held By Russia
Reuters: Kyiv Strikes Russian-Held Area In Southern Ukraine In Rocket Attack
AP: Minister: Ukraine needs assurances to resume grain exports
Reuters: China Complains To Japan About Taiwan Vice President At Abe Funeral
USNI News: Australia Developing New Defense Strategy in Response to China, Says Deputy Prime Minister
Breaking Defense: Could Greek F-35 Buy Cause A Flare Up In U.S.-Turkish Relations?
Air Force Magazine: Analysts: Ukraine Needs U.S. Aircraft; U.S. Needs to Stop Self-Deterring
Air Force Magazine: B-21 Director Walden Leaving RCO to Advise LaPlante at Pentagon
C4SINET: Biden To Sign Defense Production Act Directives Targeting Hypersonics Development
Military.com: 155,000 Military Health System Patients to Be Pushed to Civilian Care Starting This Year
Air Force Magazine: Construction of Gulf War Memorial Begins on the National Mall
19fortyfive.com: The Russian Military Won’t Send Stealth Fighters or Armata Tanks Into Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Watch: Russia Is Leaving Countless Dead Tanks in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Does Russia Really Want Alaska Back? No, But Putin Wants a Chunk of the Arctic
19fortyfive.com: Israel Won’t Send Ukraine Weapons. The Reason: Syria
19fortyfive.com: Could China Soon Have a Stronger Military Than America?
Marine Corps Times: The Incredible Story Of How This Marine Crash-Landed A KC-130J, Saving Its Crew After A Midair Collision
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JULY 13
10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Netherlands Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren to the Pentagon
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Middle East Missile Defense: Is the Drug Dealer Opening Rehab Clinics?” with Jonathan Schachter, senior fellow at the Hudson Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East; Can Kasapoglu, nonresident senior fellow at the Hudson Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East; and Michael Doran, director of the Hudson Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East https://www.hudson.org/events/2131-virtual-event
1:30 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles to the Pentagon
1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Security Assistance to Ukraine: The State Department’s Role,” with Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Jessica Lewis; Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs Todd Robinson; and Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation Kathryn Insley; and Dafna Rand, director of the State Department’s Office of Foreign Assistance https://www.csis.org/events/security-assistance-ukraine-state-departments-role
2 p.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Reform National Security Subcommittee: “Protecting Military Servicemembers and Veterans from Financial Scams and Fraud” http://oversight.house.gov
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Advancing Soldier-First Modernization,” with retired Army Lt. Gen. John Morgan, partner at IBM Consulting; retired Army Col. John Kuenzli, human resources branch chief at IBM Federal and Army Account Solutions; Tom Saracene, regional vice president for sales at Salesforce; and Michael Parker, vice president and business development executive at Salesforce https://www.govexec.com/feature/Advancing-Soldier
3 p.m. 290 Wood Road, Annapolis, Maryland — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Maritime Security Dialogue: Naval Aviation Update,” with Navy Vice Adm. Kenneth Whitesell, commander of Naval Air Forces and commander of Naval Air Force at the U.S. Pacific Fleet; Navy Rear Adm. James Downey, program executive officer for aircraft carriers at the Navy; Rear Adm. Andrew Loiselle, director of Air Warfare Division, N98, in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations; and Ward Carroll, director of outreach at the U.S. Naval Institute https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue-naval-aviation-update
3:15 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies book discussion: Degrade and Destroy: The Inside Story of the War Against the Islamic State, from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, with author Michael Gordon; retired Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy; and moderator Bradley Bowman, senior director, FDD Center on Military and Political Power https://www.fdd.org/events/2022/07/13/degrade-and-destroy
THURSDAY | JULY 14
9 a.m. S.W. corner of Constitution Ave. and 23rd St. N.W. — The National Desert Storm Memorial Association will ceremoniously break ground on the future National Desert Storm and Desert Shield Memorial, with Kuwaiti Ambassador to the U.S. Salem Abdullah Al-Jaber Al-Sabah; Sen. John Boozman (R-AK); retired Air Force Gen. Chuck Horner; retired Army Brig. Gen. Rhonda Cornum; and Matthew “Fritz” Mihelcic, national commander, Veterans of Foreign Wars. Livestream: https://www.ndswm.org/live
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference on “Homeland Cruise Missile Defense,” with Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerk, commander of the U.S. Northern Command; Air Force Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, commander of the U.S. Transportation Command; and Navy Adm. Charles Richard, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command https://www.csis.org/events/homeland-cruise-missile-defense
10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “Biden’s Trip to the Middle East: Objectives and Potential Outcomes,” with Cinzia Bianco, Gulf research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Zaha Hasan, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Middle East Program; Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now; and Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Arab Center https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Xi’s New Global Security Initiative,” with Manoj Kewalramani, chair of the Indo-Pacific research program at the Takshashila Institution; Sheena Chestnut Greitens, associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin’s School of Public Affairs; and Taylor Fravel, professor of political science and director at MIT’s Security Studies Program https://www.csis.org/events/xis-new-global-security-initiative
10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Italian Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini to the Pentagon
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Regaining the High Ground against China,” with Diana Maurer, director, defense capabilities and management, Government Accountability Office; Derek Trunkey, principal analyst, Congressional Budget Office; Mark Gunzinger, director, future concepts and capability assessments, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies; Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute; and Timothy Walton, senior fellow, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event-regaining-the-high-ground
2 p.m. — Brookings Institution discussion on “The National Defense Strategy and great power competition,” with former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; and Michael O’Hanlon, co-director of the Brookings Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-national-defense-strategy
2:30 p.m. 1200 16th St., N.W. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Richard Marles, deputy prime minister and defense minister of Australia https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“President Trump is a 76-year-old. He is not an impressionable child … Donald Trump had access to more detailed and specific information showing that the election was not actually stolen than almost any other American. And he was told this over and over again. No rational or sane man in his position could disregard that information and reach the opposite conclusion.”
Rep. Liz Cheney, (R-WY), in her opening statement in Tuesday’s seventh hearing of the Jan. 6 committee.
