1. Jason Campbell will play much better than anticipated. Especially early in the season when the schedule, and the defenses the Redskins face, is much easier. For a guy who was unwanted in the offseason — not just by the Redskins — he seems to be playing with a lot of confidence. The coaches also have a better idea of how to get him into a rhythm, it seems. He’ll be helped by an improving WR corps, thanks to Malcolm Kelly, and a line that, when healthy, is good enough. He’ll throw 22 touchdown passes. Will this be good enough for them to award Campbell a new contract? That’s hard to say. My hunch says no; that they’ll look at Campbell and say he was good, but not good enough to get to where they want to go. And with some potentially good QBs in the draft, they’ll still look at someone else for the future.
2. The Redskins will win nine games. Don’t know which ones because you never know how the schedule breaks. But they have a nine-win feel to them. My guess is another fast start will be followed by a sluggish finish that will hurt players such as Campbell. The reason I don’t like their second half is because of depth along the line and Carlos Rogers’ situation at corner. If his calf forces him out for a couple games, that will present problems. And it’s hard to have any confidence in the OL backups because they’re so inexperienced. History suggests one, or two, will be needed. The season will come down to how healthy the OL stays. If they enjoy good health, the Redskins will make the playoffs. We’re not betting on it. If anything happens to the tackles it could be a disaster. Even if Mike Wiliams improves, he hasn’t shown he can stay healthy for more than a game at a time.
Still, they’re better than last year. The question is, will Jim Zorn stay or go? My gut says he’ll be gone, especially if Mike Shanahan wants to come here. Now, and this is a copout: if the offense flourishes (and if injuries cause the second-half fade) then Zorn will return. The playoffs are not a mandate as much as real offensive progress (provided they don’t finish 6-10, but that won’t happen). The Redskins do like him; they work well with him and my other guess is they might not want to pay an entire staff not to coach in 2010. (On the other hand, Shanahan is owed a lot of money by Denver, which could allow a team to get him cheaper than usual). With teams, including the Redskins, pinching pennies left and right, money is always a factor.
3. Albert Haynesworth will miss at least three games. Not going out on a limb here because his resume suggests as much. To me the magic number is 14; if he plays at least that much then the Redskins will win 10 games. Of course, it depends on which games he misses; if he misses the Detroit game, for example, that should not be a crushing blow. If it’s the Eagles and Cowboys or Giants, then it could be. So much of what they want to do defensively is based on Haynesworth and the trickled-down impact. Minus him, other players return to being ordinary.
4. The Giants will win the division. I do think the Redskins will pull the upset in the opener. I don’t like the Giants’ corner situation entering this game and their wide receivers are too unproven. But here’s why they’ll win: they have the best defensive line, the best offensive line, a coach and quarterback who have won a Super Bowl and a bruising runner. In other words, the perfect NFC East formula. A month ago I picked the Eagles to win, but the Giants to win the Super Bowl. But the Eagles have more questions and losing their middle linebacker hurts the defense (as well as the loss of coordinator Jimmie Johnson). The Redskins will finish third; a month ago I had them at fourth; maybe by October we’ll have them in second.
5. Brian Orakpo will record eight sacks. It’s hard for rookies to make an impact in the pass rush (Mario Williams had just 4.5 sacks as a rookie; DeMarcus Ware had eight). It helps that Orakpo will be paired next to Haynesworth, but he’ll still have to learn how to rush at the NFL level. The Redskins will see a lot of three-step drops and quick throws. So eight sacks isn’t a bad figure at all.
Follow me on twitter @John_Keim.
