Rick Snider: Too early to tell

Nothing says springtime like the Kentucky Derby — the day is filled with bourbon, betting and beautiful people. And nothing says winter’s end like Derby preps.

Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes is the first serious one, drawing highly regarded To Honor and Serve and Dialed In to Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. Each week then has another big race. The Gotham Stakes on March 5 wakes up the New York stables. The San Felipe Stakes on March 12 starts California’s contingent. Derby favorite Uncle Mo begins his campaign that same day at the Tampa Bay Derby.

It’s time to start drooling over money to be made, dreams to be fulfilled, legends to celebrate and maybe the next Triple Crown coronation.

Uncle Mo seemingly has a safe path to a Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes sweep. Top contenders Boys At Tosconova and Tapizar recently dropped out of the Derby chase because of ailments.

If only it was that easy to forecast. The last two Derby winners — Super Saver and Mine That Bird — were nobodies who never won again. Who thought they would win the Derby?

Uncle Mo is the 9-2 favorite in the Derby futures wagering, a bargain should he reach Churchill Downs on May 7 at half those odds. He’s clearly the top contender after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs to become the undefeated 2-year-old champion.

The Tampa Bay Derby will provide a glimpse of Uncle Mo’s readiness. Some think he’s the one to end the 33-year Triple Crown drought. Should Uncle Mo race well, trainer Todd Pletcher will take the son of Indian Charlie to New York for the Wood Memorial on April 9 as the final Derby prep.

Just two races before the Derby? It has been done before. Pletcher’s a sharp trainer, so the colt’s conditioning won’t be short for the 1?-mile Derby. Pletcher is weighing all three classic races, so he’s trying to keep Uncle Mo fresh.

To Honor and Serve is the top competition. The son of 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini doesn’t have to win the Fountain of Youth to remain Derby bound, but he does have to show increased maturity over a longer distance.

Dialed In suddenly moved from interesting long shot to third choice in futures wagering after winning the Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 30 at Gulfstream. Trainer Nick Zito may have his third Derby winner despite the horse having only two victories (albeit in his only two starts). Dialed In makes only one late run, and that’s not an asset in the Derby, which often favors midpack runners, or the Preakness, which rewards early speedsters. He might be the choice at the Belmont, where Zito is known for upsets. For now, Dialed In meets To Honor and Serve in the Fountain of Youth.

The mint juleps soon will flow. Maybe the cash will, too.

Examiner columnist Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Follow him on Twitter @Snide_Remarks or e-mail [email protected].

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