The college football championship game preview you need to see

It all comes down to this: the national championship game. We’ve got two familiar faces in Alabama and Clemson. Who else could it have been? For the fourth consecutive year, Alabama and Clemson will face off in the College Football Playoff. For the third time in those four years, they’ll play for the national title.

In case you missed the first three installments, here’s what happened. In 2016, Alabama beat Clemson 45-40 to win the national title in the second-ever year of the CFP. In 2017, Clemson got revenge on Alabama in Deshaun Watson’s final season and won the national championship on a game-winning drive and score with almost no time remaining in one of the greatest national championship games in college football history. It might not be Texas-USC, but it’s up there as far as talent-level and drama. Last season, Alabama got out to a quick start and manhandled Clemson 24-6 in the CFP semifinals en route to the national championship.

Now, it’s time for Alabama-Clemson IV.

They were the two best teams in the country coming into the season and they’re still the two best teams in the country at the end of it. Here’s where both teams rank nationally in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency:

Offense: Alabama is the best in the nation. Clemson ranks 4th.

Defense: Clemson is the best in the nation. Alabama ranks 2nd.

How about scoring offense and scoring defense nationally?

Offense: Alabama is second in the nation (47.7 points per game). Clemson ranks 4th at 44.3 points per game.

Defense: Clemson is the best in the nation (12.9 points per game allowed). Alabama ranks 5th at 16.2 points per game allowed.

This game will come down, as it so often does, to quarterback play. On display are two of the best quarterbacks in the country. Trevor Lawrence, the ACC rookie of the year, is a superstar in his own right, and the true freshman has validated head coach Dabo Swinney’s decision to give him the starting job after the fourth game of the season. Tua Tagovailoa was already an Alabama legend coming into the season because of his throw to beat Georgia in overtime in last year’s national championship game. Alabama head coach Nick Saban benched starter Jalen Hurts and Tagovailoa led the Crimson Tide to the come-from-behind win and yet another national title.

Both coaches had quarterback controversies on their hands entering this season. Saban had to decide whether to start Hurts, who had led the team to back-to-back national title games, or Tagovailoa. Swinney had to decide whether to start Kelly Bryant, who led the previous year’s team to an ACC title and the CFP semifinals, or Lawrence, his highly-touted true freshman quarterback.

Both Tagovailoa and Lawrence opened up new possibilities for their teams on offense. Traditionally, Alabama’s offense has been centered around the run game, but Tagovailoa’s precision passing and efficiency gave the Crimson Tide a top-10 passing offense (with more than 325 yards per game) to pair with its powerful running attack that averages more than 200 yards per game.

Alabama was so dominant this year that Tagovailoa didn’t even play in the fourth quarter until its ninth game of the season. That’s the difference that Tagovailoa, the SEC offensive player of the year, made on this team. He seemed like a lock to win the Heisman until he left the SEC Championship Game with an injury and Hurts led the Crimson Tide to a come-from-behind victory. He likely would have won in just about any other year because his numbers were eye-popping.

After breaking Watson’s high school records when he was a high school quarterback in Georgia, Lawrence will try to match Watson’s crowning achievement at Clemson: beating Alabama in the national championship game.

Calm and composed, Lawrence seems unflappable under center. He has a cannon for an arm and will undoubtedly be a first-round pick when he becomes eligible for the NFL draft. This is the biggest game of his life and he’s facing the defending national champions. For him, it’s just another game, and that’s a remarkable thing to see from such a young quarterback.

Here are the passing numbers for both QBs:

Tua Tagovailoa: 3,353 passing yards, 67.7 percent completion percentage, 37 touchdowns, and four interceptions.

Trevor Lawrence: 2,606 passing yards, 65 percent completion percentage, 24 touchdowns, and four interceptions

Both Alabama and Clemson won handily in their semifinal matchups to reach the title game. It took Alabama less than 20 minutes to race out to a 28-0 lead against No. 4 Oklahoma and Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray. While the Sooners scored 24 points in the second half, it wasn’t enough as they lost by double digits in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated.

The Clemson-Notre Dame game was only close at the start. The game was tied 3-3 going into the second quarter, but Clemson exploded for 20 points to take a 23-3 lead into the half. After the first 15 minutes, the Tigers shut out the Fighting Irish the rest of the way to finish off a dominant victory.

Something funny that I noticed is just how similar both Alabama and Clemson finished statistically on offense in the semifinals: Alabama threw for 328 yards against Oklahoma. Clemson threw for 327 against Notre Dame. Clemson ran for 211 yards against Notre Dame. Alabama racked up 200 rushing yards against Oklahoma. I mean, what are the odds?

Running back Travis Etienne will be a huge factor for Clemson. He has run for 1,463 yards and 21 touchdowns this season and averages 8.3 yards per carry. He topped 100 yards in just 14 carries and scored a touchdown while averaging 7.8 yards per rush against a very good Notre Dame defense in Clemson’s rout of the Fighting Irish in the CFP semifinals. If Clemson can get Etienne going early and often, it’ll help take pressure off of Lawrence. If Alabama can keep Etienne contained and under wraps, the Crimson Tide will be able to focus on sending pressure and making Lawrence’s life a lot harder.

Whichever team does the better job of converting on third down will have a huge advantage because they’ll be able to extend drives and keep the opposing team’s offense off the field while grinding down and wearing out the defense.

Alabama ranks second in the country in third down conversion percentage at an incredible 53.9 percent. The Tigers are 25th. However, Clemson is ranked fifth in the country in third down defense, holding its opponents to a paltry third down conversion rate of 28.3 percent. Alabama is 15th in that category.

If you want to look at which team is stingier in the red zone, that would be Alabama. The Crimson Tide are 4th in the country and only allow 71.4 percent of opposing teams’ red zone drives to end with a field goal or a touchdown. Clemson is in a tie for 11th, at 75 percent.

Surprisingly, Alabama ranks 45th in the country in red zone offense, scoring on 84 percent of its drives that reach the red zone. Clemson, on the other hand, is 27th in the country in red zone offense at 88.4 percent.

Tagovailoa says the ankle injury that he suffered during the SEC Championship game has healed. If he’s close to 100 percent, that could be bad news for Clemson.

Alabama got a good taste of competing against an incredibly talented, dangerous, and balanced offense and defense when it played Georgia in the SEC Championship. The Bulldogs gave the Crimson Tide everything they could handle, but that was also Tagovailoa’s worst game of the year and he was forced to leave with the aforementioned injury.

If you take away the SEC Championship game where Alabama won by 7 and the semifinals against Oklahoma where it coasted to an 11-point win, the Crimson Tide’s smallest margin of victory in the regular season was 22 points.

Meanwhile, Clemson hasn’t been seriously tested since its 27-23 win against Syracuse on Sept. 29. The Tigers won their last nine games by at least 20 points.

I expect to see a fantastic football game Monday night. Both teams are laden with NFL-level talent on both sides of the ball. Can Clemson knock off Alabama in the national title game for the second time in three years and stake its claim as the new Alabama? Will Alabama go back-to-back and win its third title in four years for the second time under Nick Saban? Alabama became the third school in FBS history to win three national titles in four years after the Tide beat Texas in 2009, LSU in 2011, and Notre Dame in 2012.

Will Saban win his seventh national championship as a coach, tying him with Bear Bryant for the most championships in the poll era?

We’ll find out Monday night.

The Line: Alabama (-5.5)

My Pick: This line would normally be a little high considering the history between the two teams and just how good Clemson has been this season. However, I’m taking the Crimson Tide to win and cover. As good as the Tigers have been this season, I still think there’s a gap between them and Alabama.