AFC Divisional Round Broncos (9-8) at Patriots (13-3)
When » Saturday, 8 p.m. Where » Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. TV » CBS
Storylines
1 A pressure-packed situation » The Patriots are the top seed and heavy favorites at home against a Broncos team that backed its way into an AFC West title. New England hasn’t won a playoff game since the AFC championship game in 2007, losing at home to the Ravens and Jets the past two postseasons. And while Tom Brady doesn’t seem to be slowing down, throwing for a career-high 5,235 yards this season, he is 34 years old and this could be his best chance at winning another Super Bowl. Can the Broncos, who already have surpassed all expectations, make it three home playoff losses in a row for the Patriots?
2 A running trend » The Broncos were the top rushing team in the NFL and ran for 252 yards when they played the Patriots earlier this season. They still lost 41-23, so Denver will need to do more than just run the ball well to win. But finding success on the ground would control the tempo and keep Brady and the Patriots’ high-powered offense off the field. Denver quarterback Tim Tebow has been effective running the option in the red zone and had two rushing scores in the loss to the Patriots. Running back Willis McGahee was kept in check last week vs. the Steelers, rushing for 61 yards on 19 carries. He’ll need to get back on track.
Key matchup
Broncos WRs vs. Patriots DBs
Without Eric Decker, the Broncos’ leading receiver this season, even more focus will be put on stopping Demaryius Thomas. Last week against the top-ranked pass defense in the league, Thomas had 204 yards on four catches, including the 80-yard game-winning score. The success of the Broncos is contingent on making big plays in the passing game. The Patriots had the worst pass defense in the AFC and even tried using wide receiver Julian Edelman as a cornerback to help the secondary. Can New England stop Denver’s deep throws?
By the Numbers
24 Touchdowns scored by Patriots tight ends Rob Gronkowski (17) and Aaron Hernandez (seven) this season.
31.6 Yards per completion for Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow last week vs. the Steelers.
Last meeting
Patriots 41, Broncos 23 (Dec. 18) » The Broncos got off to a really hot start, going up 16-7 and outushing the Patriots 167-4 in the first quarter. But Tom Brady and the Patriots responded with 20 points in the second quarter and controlled the rest of the game. Brady threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, and tight end Aaron Hernandez had nine catches for 129 yards and a score. There was even a Chad Ochocinco sighting; he scored his lone touchdown of the year in the first quarter. The Broncos turned the ball over three times in the loss.
Examiner predicts …
Patriots 34, Broncos 24
Tim Tebow can’t pull off another unfathomable victory, right? The Patriots won’t make the same mistake the Steelers made last week: consistently bringing their safeties in the box to stop the run. The Broncos still will have a couple big plays, but their defense won’t be able to stop Tom Brady, Wes Welker and the Patriots’ talented tight ends. The success of Tebow has been a compelling storyline, but he won’t outplay Brady.
