1. I really have no idea who the Redskins will pick. And nobody else really does either. I know that Mike Shanahan does not let any information leak out that he doesn’t want out. So I take everything that is rumored about them with that mindset. Otherwise: They’d be trading up for Blaine Gabbert or staying at 10 and taking Ryan Mallett or trading back with St. Louis. Etc., etc. Get the picture? All of these have been rumored. Could one of them happen? Sure.
2. They need a quarterback. They will take a quarterback. Now, nobody has said that for sure. But the Redskins need a QB…they’ve clearly kicked the tires on them … and they’ve tried to solve that position for the past couple offseasons. No, Mike Shanahan was not yet here when they tried to get Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez, but there’s a strong sense he was consulting with the Redskins at the time if nothing else. Point is: He has long recognized the need to get a franchise type QB here. He says this is a deep class for QBs. Makes sense that they will pick one. You can’t play the waiting game at this position by looking ahead to next year’s class and “trying” for Andrew Luck. Do you really think Shanahan would risk going 2-14 or 1-15 to get Luck? Do you think the owner would play along with that? And remember: the guys not in the draft ALWAYS seem to look better than the guys who are. Why? Because they haven’t yet been scrutinized. I don’t buy that Locker would have been the No. 1 pick last year.
3. One other thing to consider about QB. Yes, this is a tough year to bring one in if, somehow, the lockout lasts to August (assuming the owners win their appeal). But in some ways they’re in a good spot, too, because how many rookie QBs will actually be ready to play this season? This forces a team to perhaps sit them for a year, let them learn and work on their skills. Then let them loose in 2012. Plus, and let’s be realistic here, the Redskins probably aren’t going anywhere this year. Agreed? OK. They’re still in transition; maybe they’ll improve but the point is they need a lot to be strong contenders. It’s not a bad year to “break in” a new QB. But the other thing is: if they draft a QB in the first round, and players right now are allowed to study playbooks as of Friday morning, then a team can get them the playbook. Had Judge Nelson ruled differently on the stay, then that would not be allowable.
4. But my hunch is that if they stay at 10, they will look at another position, short of Blaine Gabbert falling to them. Could that happen? Perhaps, but the guess is that if Gabbert is around at 7 or 8 if the Niners don’t take him someone will trade up. If the Redskins stay at 10, I have a slight gut feeling that they’ll take Robert Quinn. I’m not sold on that happening, but they do want a pass-rushing OLB and Quinn would qualify. Can’t say that I’ve seen him play, but scouts/GMs/evaluators I’ve talked to are split on him. Like everyone else they might take at 10. Thing is, it would be hard to not take a defensive standout if you have a chance considering the D is still transitioning to a 3-4 and Jim Haslett received little help in making that switch last season. If they take an end, that’s fine but my guess is they could try to trade down a little bit and get a quality one. I’m not sold on J.J. Watt as a top-10 pick. At 15 or 16? Sure. Of course, that requires someone wanting to trade up too.
5. What if they take Julio Jones? Taking a receiver at 10 is not always the best way to go. However, if Jones is rated that much higher on your board … and you have a need at receiver… then take him. One GM said they need to get the QB position solved before they take a receiver. But, he said, if the guy is elite you grab him. Jones could be elite. Don’t forget, this pick is as much about the next 5-10 years as it is 2011. A pass-catching corps of Jones, Santana Moss, Anthony Armstrong and Chris Cooley –would be solid. The knock on Jones is that he sometimes drops easy passes. That doesn’t always change when a guy gets to the NFL. But he is dynamic and the Redskins need playmakers. They also need offensive line help, but I’d be surprised if they looked here in the first round after taking a LT in Trent Williams last year. But a strong RT would help and, as one GM said, if you don’t have the QB you’d better improve the run game and if, say, Tyron Smith was the new RT his mobility would help in the run game. The point is: They can turn in several directions and be justified. They need to come out of this draft with two starters, which is one reason I think they’ll trade down — or somehow maneuver into the late first round. They could get three players in the first two rounds, one of them being a QB. Gonna be an interesting night.
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