It’s week 11 of college football and we are just two weeks away from regular season finales! My predictions crushed it last week, going 3-0 straight up and against the spread. That brings my numbers (through seven weeks of picking games) to 13-8 straight up and 11-10 against the spread. Here are three games to keep an eye on:
No. 2 Clemson (9-0, 6-0) at No. 17 Boston College (7-2, 4-1) — 8 p.m. EST on ABC
The stakes are simple: The winner controls their own destiny in the ACC’s Atlantic Division. This also might be the last and best chance to beat Clemson before the College Football Playoff begins. The Tigers appear to be a near-lock to make the playoff, but a loss would be big trouble.
After pulling out a close win against Syracuse back on Sept. 29, Clemson went into juggernaut mode. A 60-point win on the road against Wake (63-3), a 34-point win at home against ranked and undefeated N.C. State (41-7), a 49-point win on the road at Florida State (59-10), and a 61-point win at home against Louisville (77-16).
True freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been pretty much everything Clemson could have hoped for and more. He looks settled, and he’s getting better every week. So far this season, he’s completing more than 65 percent of his passes and has thrown 18 touchdowns with only three picks.
One of the things that has helped Lawrence immensely is Clemson’s running game. The Tigers have the country’s seventh-best running attack, averaging 265.3 yards per game. Travis Etienne has been one of the country’s best running backs this season. He’s second in the country in rushing touchdowns, top five in yards per carry, and top 10 in rushing yards.
On the other sideline, Boston College showed its mettle by rattling off three straight wins after a road loss to ranked N.C. State. The Eagles’ formula appears to be pretty simple: Control the line of scrimmage, run the ball, and play good defense. BC is 23rd in the nation in rushing yards per game and allows just a hair over 24 points per game. AJ Dillon has been outstanding for the Eagles. He’s averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has run for eight touchdowns. Quarterback Anthony Brown hasn’t been as accurate as his staff would like, his completion percentage is 57.9 percent, but he has thrown for 16 touchdowns to go along with five interceptions.
The Line: Clemson (-19.0)
My Pick: Boston College has been a great story all season long, but the Tigers have the country’s fourth-best scoring offense and the country’s fourth-best scoring defense. Twenty points is a lot against a dangerous Eagles team, but I’m picking Clemson to win and cover.
Florida State (4-5, 2-5) at No. 3 Notre Dame (9-0) — 7:30 p.m. EST on NBC
On its face, this game isn’t all that intriguing outside of how Notre Dame has bounced back this season and how far Florida State has fallen. However, The Athletic reported that Ian Book, Notre Dame’s starting quarterback, sustained a rib injury and will not suit up for this game. That means this game, which seemed destined to be a blowout, could be a lot closer.
Brandon Wimbush, who began the year at QB for the Fighting Irish before Book took over against Wake Forest, will start. Notre Dame scored 24 points or fewer in the three games that Wimbush started, but Book failed to reach 31 points or more only once in his six games under center.
Fun fact about FSU: If you’re ignoring NCAA sanctions, the Seminoles have 41 consecutive winning seasons and 36 straight bowl bids. Those streaks are in serious jeopardy. After tonight’s game, FSU still has home matchups against ranked Boston College and ranked Florida.
FSU head coach Willie Taggart turned over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Walt Bell for the N.C. State game, and it appears Bell will be calling the plays this week as well. Unfortunately, he might be missing two of his top offensive linemen because of injuries.
James Blackman filled in for an injured Deondre Francois last week and was 29-for-46 with 421 yards and four touchdown passes. FSU lost by 19, but those are still great numbers.
To call Florida State’s run game anemic would be generous, the ‘Noles are averaging 2.4 yards per carry on the ground this year. They are 128 in the country in rushing yards per game at 76.9 and are scoring just 23.8 points per game while giving up 30.4 points per game. For a perennial powerhouse with decades of proud tradition like FSU, those numbers are both shocking and depressing.
Notre Dame has a top-20 scoring defense and its rushing attack averages 181 yards per game, more than twice FSU’s per-game average. Having Wimbush under center makes Notre Dame more one-dimensional because he’s not a great passer like Book is. This is FSU’s big moment to change the perception of its season. The Seminoles have been getting kicked in the teeth all year long, and I expect them to come out with a lot of intensity for this game. Will it be enough to help them keep it close and give them a shot to win?
The Line: Notre Dame (-16.5)
My Pick: I fully expect FSU to show up for this game and I also expect Wimbush to give Fighting Irish fans some anxiety. That being said, Notre Dame is still a far superior team and should win this game handily. Even though that’s a lot of points to put out there with Book being out, I’m taking the Fighting Irish to win and cover.
No. 24 Auburn (6-3, 3-3) at No. 5 Georgia (8-1, 6-1) — 7 p.m. EST on ESPN
Auburn was on the ropes last week at home against ranked Texas A&M and managed to pull off an incredible 14-point fourth-quarter comeback to stun the Aggies. Had Auburn lost, the hot seat under Gus Malzahn, who received a seven-year contract before the season, might have burst into flames. 6-3 looks a lot better than 5-4! Georgia, on the other hand, clinched the SEC East title with a dominant win on the road against top-10 Kentucky.
Georgia ran for a season-high 331 yards against the Wildcats and had two 100-yard rushers. As the ESPN article states, Kentucky had allowed only one in the entire season up to that point. Expect to see more of the same on Saturday between the hedges. D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield are going to get a lot of touches.
Malzahn’s up-tempo attack has been disappointing this year as the Tigers have averaged only 28.6 points per game, a mark that puts them at 78th in the country. The run game, normally a staple of Auburn offenses, is 82nd in the country at 155.2 rushing yards per game. The defense, however, has been stout. The Tigers have the nation’s 13th best scoring defense, allowing just a little more than 17 points per game.
Jarrett Stidham, who led the comeback last week, has been solid this season. He’s a dual-threat QB and has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards along with 10 touchdowns and four picks. Georgia signal-caller Jake Fromm has also thrown for almost 1,800 yards and has 17 touchdowns and four picks. He usually isn’t asked to shoulder the load on offense because when you have a top-20 run game and a top-10 defense like the Bulldogs do, sometimes all you need to do is take care of the ball and make the smart play. And that’s exactly what Fromm does. He’s seventh in the country in passing efficiency.
The Georgia-Auburn rivalry is one of the longest in college football history. Last year, Auburn pummeled No. 1 Georgia on the Plains, 40-17, but the Bulldogs got their revenge by manhandling the Tigers, 28-7, in the SEC Championship. 2013 brought us the Miracle on the Plains. Will we see something miraculous on Saturday in Athens?
The Line: Georgia (-14.0)
My Pick: At home and needing to make a statement, I think the Dawgs pound the rock early and often with Swift and Holyfield to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@Noah715) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
