Where have you gone Secretariat?
Actually, racegoers would turn their lonely eyes to Assault, Count Fleet or even Whirlaway these days.
The Triple Crown drought will reach 33 years Saturday when Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford and Kentucky Derby champion Animal Kingdom race in the 143rd Belmont Stakes.
Will American racing ever produce a 12th Triple Crown champion? Is it even possible with so many great stallions sold to overseas breeders and with American foal crops falling to half their 1980s levels?
The Belmont ends another lackluster series of spring classics. Animal Kingdom and Shackleford did nothing before the Triple Crown; this generation of 3-year-old colts smells of one-shot wonders. With kingpin Uncle Mo on the mend from a rare liver disease, 2011 will be dismissed like many recent years for producing forgettable races.
It has happened too many times. Last year three duds shared the classics. Filly Rachel Alexandra won the 2009 Preakness to show how weak the male class was. Big Brown was the only Triple Crown aspirant entering the Belmont over the last seven years, and he finished ninth in New York.
What happened to diminish racing since it crowned three champions in the 1970s? Greed, tax code changes and changing consumer tastes.
When 1986 Derby winner Ferdinand was sold to Japanese breeders, it opened the once unthinkable concept of exporting top stallions. Indeed, four Preakness winners are in Japan, while two others died there after their careers as stallions. That Ferdinand later died in a Japanese slaughterhouse caused U.S. breeders to include buyback clauses but otherwise didn’t stem the export of leading horses. Indeed, Arab buyers are now much more prevalent at sales than the Japanese.
The 1985 tax law change also proved dramatic. Owners no longer could write off racing expenses unless they were involved on a daily basis. Many owners investing in horses instead of stocks and bonds pulled away. Suddenly, annual foal crops dropped by more than 10,000 annually. Indeed, the 25,000 thoroughbreds born last year were the fewest since 1974 and half of pre-1985 levels. Fewer horses mean fewer chances of producing a super horse.
American fans also prefer shorter races. The Belmont’s 1? miles make it the longest U.S. stakes race, while the Derby’s 1? miles are not seen on most daily cards. Breeders concentrate on sprinters, meaning Triple Crown runners are the exceptions.
A popular thought was a Triple Crown winner eventually would come after 18 near misses since Affirmed’s 1978 sweep. But as the longest Triple Crown drought grows with each annual failure, that’s looking more like a long shot.
Secretariat ended a 25-year drought. It might take his equal to break through again.
Examiner columnist Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Read more on Twitter @Snide_Remarks or email [email protected].
