Snider » Revenge not to be had

In a crowded field with a half dozen contenders and no worthy favorite, America’s most famous horse race comes down to positioning, jockey and trainer. The son of Empire Maker has them all.

The early 4-1 second choice has trainer Bob Baffert, the shocking white-haired Hall of Famer going for his fourth Derby win. Jockey Garrett Gomez was named champion rider the past two years. And one look at Pioneerof the Nile’s victory in the Santa Anita Derby shows the exact way he’ll win the Derby — stalking the leaders until the final turn before pulling away in the stretch.

Baffert knows how to peak a horse for the first Saturday in May. Gomez is a great judge of pace that’s so essential in a 20-horse field. Pioneerof the Nile has stamina for the 1 1/4-mile race.

Easy money — right? Well, anything and everything can go wrong in the Derby. The biggest fear is Pioneerof the Nile won’t adapt to the deep Louisville track after racing on harder synthetic surfaces in California.

The colt trained well over Churchill Downs, though. Gomez has restrained Pioneerof the Nile early in races to preserve late runs, but he’ll need to let the colt run more freely early. That should let him to lay fourth early and just wait for the final quarter mile.

Desert Party will be second at 12-1 to provide a $90 exacta. Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin Stable is one of the world’s biggest spenders of horse flesh. Mohammed’s horses are always royally bred, but that elitist attitude is partially the problem. They’re too lightly raced and can’t compete in roughly-run long events. That’s why this colt won’t repel Pioneerof the Nile in the stretch.

Hold Me Back gets third at 15-1 with former Maryland phenom jockey Kent Desormeaux, who won last year aboard Big Brown. The colt comes from too far back to get through the crowded field, though.

So what about favorite I Want Revenge? The word “phony” flashes across my mind. New York is no longer the premier path to the Derby and his two runaway victories in Gotham City are a tease. Don’t waste your money

Looking for a long shot? Advice won the Lexington Stakes at 15-1 with a monster move. He might be better for the Preakness Stakes, but worth at Derby look at 30-1.

Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Read more at TheRickSniderReport.com or e-mail [email protected].