Consider the National League Championship Series a preview of things to come for the Nationals.
The Colorado Rockies, with baseball’s 25thhighest payroll (or 6th lowest) of $54 million, against the Arizona Diamondbacks, right behind at $52 million. Both teams are rife with their own products. The Rockies’ lineup features homegrown draft picks Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe (and sometimes Ryan Spilborghs), along with starting pitchers Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook. The D-backs strike back with Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Carlos Quentin, Mark Reynolds, Chris Snyder, Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, and pitchers Brandon Webb, Micah Owings, Jose Valverde, Tony Pena and Doug Slaten. Leadoff hitter — and slugger — Chris Young was part of a 3-player package they received from the White Sox for pitcher Javier Vasquez.
In 2004 Colorado finished 4th, at 68-94, while Arizona brought up the rear in the NL West at 51-111, a true “historically bad” season for the Diamondbacks. In those days Arizona’s draft day decisions were overseen by Mike Rizzo, who during his tenure in the desert, took the Snakes’ farm system ranking from near-rock bottom to the NL’s best. Rizzo was one of President Stan Kasten’s first hires when the Washington franchise was awarded to the Lerner family, and the Nats’ draft this past summer ranks as one of the game’s best.
The Rockies and Diamondbacks are proof positive that you can build from within in the National League, using free agency as a “fill-in-the-blank” option. No one on the Arizona playoff roster — beyond a couple of minor league free agents — qualifies as a big money free agent signing. Indeed, their highest paid player, the disabled Randy Johnson, came in a trade with the Yankees. Colorado’s playoff roster is much the same.
And the world series will be …
» Picking a winner from these two NLCS teams is no gimme. Colorado won the season series 10-8, outscoring Arizona 86-72, hardly an indication of superiority. Arizona has home field, but even that’s of little consequence in the NLCS. Keeping the game balls humidified has turned Coors Field into a relatively neutral ballpark — certainly far more so than its first several years. The key stat, however, is total runs scored. The Rockies scored 100 more runs than they allowed, while the Diamondbacks scored 20 fewer runs than they allowed. The wild card concept is alive and well: I’ll take Colorado in six games.
» In the ALCS, the Red Sox and Indians both won 96 games in 2007. They only played each other 7 times this year, with Boston winning 5 times. The key stat, once again, is runs scored, and the Red Sox, though only third in the AL with 867, outscored their opponents by 210 runs for the year. Cleveland was sixth overall with 811, but only scored 107 more runs than their opponents. Both teams have 4-man rotations ready with rock-solid anchors (Beckett and Sabathia), while Boston’s bullpen enjoys a slight edge at closer (Papelbon over Borowski). Salary-wise, it’s a different story. The Red Sox’ player payroll is $143 million; Cleveland a paltry $61 million. In this instance, money wins out: Boston in six.
Hear Phil Wood Saturdays at 10 a.m. on SportsTalk 980 AM and weekly on Comcast SportsNet’s WPL through the World Series.
