From worst to first: the improbable rise of the Tampa Bay Rays is the game’s best story this season. It gives local fans hope that almost anything is possible, even overnight, right?
Not so fast. Baseball Prospectus, the highly respected baseball think tank whose publications are a must-read for seamheads of every stripe, doesn’t think so. In a postseason report, BP says that Washington “is a bad team with a bad minor league system, and little room for optimism.” Ouch.
BP’s biggest fans say they’re remarkably prescient about things like this. After all, they called Tampa Bay’s 2008 success some 3 years ago, in their big preseason annual: “Now is the time for patience. The window of opportunity for the Rays to make the playoffs is not yet open … [but] by 2008, the baby Rays currently on the field will be just entering their primes … a championship run in 2007-08 is possible.”
By June of that year, however, in their newsletter, BP was singing a different tune: “At some point, you just have to give up. This week, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays fell permanently off my radar as a major league franchise …”
Wow, things changed fast in the BP world, and not just with the Rays. In that same 2005 preseason book, they wrote about the White Sox: “Their opportunity has passed; the constant exodus of talent will relegate this team to second-tier status.” That fall Chicago won its first World Series since 1917. Oops.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Baseball Prospectus, and have tremendous respect for the folks who put it out; I’ve interviewed several on the radio over the years. Like the rest of us, they discourage any wagering on their predictions.
I suspect they rely more on the numbers generated by the game than first-hand observation. For instance, in their recent appraisal of the Nationals they write “When Tim Redding is your ace, you’re in all sorts of trouble.” Is Redding actually their ace? No, despite a decent first half. I’ve spoken to a half-dozen major league scouts this offseason and asked them to name the Nationals’ number one starter, and they all came up with John Lannan. Asked to name a top five, some left Redding out altogether.
About Ryan Zimmerman they wrote “ … an outstanding defensive third baseman who doesn’t do enough with the bat, but he’s young and has some potential, just not as much as many think.” Really? I read that to one scout who sees the Nats a lot: “Utter nonsense. The kid missed 50 games and probably played that many more with a bad shoulder. His power is still coming.” That sounds more like it.
The Rays are in the World Series with a $44 million payroll, 29th overall. Over their history their fans have labeled them as “cheap,” an adjective some local fans love to apply to Nats’ ownership. The Rays are no fluke; they figure to be good for a long time. Their success this year proves that it’s not how much you spend; it’s how you spend it. BP’s gloom-and-doom prediction about the Nats really means very little in the grand scheme of things.
Phil Wood is a contributor to Nats Xtra on MASN. Contact him at [email protected].
