By losing, Wiz, Grizzlies have very little to gain
What’s at stake Wednesday night when the Wizards (17-58) face the Memphis Grizzlies (19-54)?
Ranked No. 29 and No. 27 respectively in the NBA standings, both teams are positioned well for the lottery in the 30-team league. History tells us no team should be in a rush, however, to finish last. It’s rarely a ticket to the first pick.
Since the current system was instituted in 1994, only one team that finished with the NBA’s worst record, and another who tied for the worst, have secured the top pick. Over the last 15 lotteries, teams that finished with the seventh-worst record have been awarded the coveted No. 1 as many times. Here’s the breakdown:
Worst record (25 percent) » Since 1994, Orlando (2004) is the only team that finished with the worst record in the NBA and has been awarded the No. 1 pick. The Magic didn’t waste it, selecting Dwight Howard. In 2003, when Cleveland tied with Denver for the worst record, the Cavaliers won the drawing and got LeBron James, while Denver settled for No. 3 (Carmelo Anthony).
Second worst (19.9 percent) » Two teams that have finished with the second worst record in the league have received the No. 1 pick. That was the route Philadelphia took in 1996, selecting Allen Iverson. In 1994, Milwaukee tied for second worst with Detroit and Minnesota, but vaulted past Dallas to pick No. 1, selecting Glenn Robinson.
Third worst (15.6 percent) » Oddly, this has been the best place to land in the standings. In a span of five years (1997-2001), four teams that finished in this position got the top pick. Some of those lotto winners were luckier than others — San Antonio (Tim Duncan), Los Angeles Clippers (Michael Olowokandi), Chicago (Elton Brand), and Washington (Kwame Brown).
Fourth worst (11.9 percent) » This has been the unluckiest position, yielding no No. 1 selections and just two No. 2 choices both by Vancouver, who selected Mike Bibby (1998) and Stromile Swift (2000).
Fifth worst (8.8 percent) » Considering the probabilities, this has been the luckiest position, yielding three No. 1 choices. Golden State took Joe Smith in 1995. Houston selected Yao Ming in 2002. And Toronto picked Andrea Bargnani in 2006.
Sixth worst (6.3 percent) » Milwaukee (Andrew Bogut) got lucky, well, maybe not, in 2005.
Seventh worst (4.3 percent) » New Jersey (Kenyon Martin) and Portland (Greg Oden) overcame long odds to get the No. 1 pick.
Eighth worst (2.8 percent) » None.
Ninth worst (1.7 percent) » The longest shot that cashed in was Chicago last year when it selected Derrick Rose, which seems to be working out nicely.
