Big Brown will win tomorrow’s Preakness Stakes easier than his Kentucky Derby victory.
Maybe the top 3-year-old colt since Spectacular Bid was known by some as “the best horse ever to look through a bridle” 29 years ago, Big Brown is facing perhaps the worst Preakness field ever. Only one other Derby runner is coming for the first time since 1980.
The Preakness field is comprised of those not good enough to make the 20-entrant Derby limit. Many are simply running for the $200,000 payout for second and $100,000 for third. And who knows, maybe something really weird happens and Big Brown runs badly. He stands in the gate, gets bumped on turns or just doesn’t want to run.
“We just don’t know how resilient the horse is,” jockey Kent Deormeaux said. “We don’t know if he gets into a dogfight that he’ll just say ‘Not this time. I’ll catch you next time.’ That’s what is so awesome about the Triple Crown and the 11 horses who have accomplished the feat. It takes an absolute freak to be ready to go again in two weeks.”
Desormeaux finished second aboard 1-5 Preakness favorite Fusaichi Pegasus after taking the 2000 Derby. That’s why the starting gate has 12 hopefuls just hoping for a bad day by the big horse.
“If Big Brown was in any other race other than coming from Kentucky to Preakness, all the wise guys would be saying he’s going to bounce,” said Kentucky Bear trainer Reade Baker said. “So, just because we call them the Derby and the Preakness why can’t he bounce?”
Reckoning day for Big Brown might come in the Belmont Stakes, but the UPS namesake wins the Preakness by as hard as Desormeaux wants to push him. Betting should be over margin of victory.
Since Big Brown may pay $2.10 for every $2 wagered, the only action is the exacta and triple. Ironically, as easy as picking the winner is, choosing between the rest of the field is that difficult.
“It looks to me if you take out Big Brown then you could run the rest of those horses 10 times and probably have six different winners,” Hey Byrn trainer Eddie Plesa said.
Agreed. It’s like naming each member of Motley Crüe — it all blends together after Big Brown.
But, exacta bettors should take Kentucky Bear and Icabad Crane in the triple with Tres Borrachos the long shot play.
Kentucky Bear is 1 of 3 with tactical speed. If Big Brown pulls away, the rest of this group may let up. Look for a closer, Kentucky Bear has enough steam to finish well and win a couple of stakes this year.
Local horses shouldn’t be overlooked. It seems like one hits the board most years. Icabad Crane won the Federico Tesio last month at Pimlico and has sharp connections with jockey Jeremy Rose and trainer Graham Motion.
If things get really crazy and you want 30-1, Tres Borrachos has a pair of thirds in stakes this year. “Three Drunks” will be the infield favorite.
Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Contact him at [email protected].
