Get ready to eat chalk.
Lookin At Lucky will beat favorite Super Saver in Saturday’s 135th Preakness Stakes with Schoolyard Dreams finishing third.
This is no Kentucky Derby cavalry charge where luck factors greatly. Nor is it a freakishly long 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes that’s a throwback to British racing roots. It’s a shorter race on sharper turns where riders make a difference and track surface doesn’t. At least, not this year on an expected beautiful 75-degree afternoon.
The Preakness is a fair race. Super Saver was a legit Derby winner, but the track was so sloppy Dublin couldn’t see the final half mile with mud the size of golf balls clogging his blinkers. And Dublin wasn’t the only one running blind while Super Saver ran clear the final mile.
This is the perfect chance for Lookin At Lucky to redeem himself after the Derby favorite finished sixth despite twice nearly being put over the rail. “Bounce” horses have long overcome a bad Derby to win the Preakness. Indeed, Snow Chief (1986), Hansel (1991) and Point Given (2001) rebounded from terrible performances.
Trainer Bob Baffert won four Preaknesses from 1997-2002, but isn’t so consumed by the Triple Crown that he brings a long shot to the series’ second leg. Indeed, Baffert hasn’t come to Pimlico since 2003 after losing the Derby. But Lookin At Lucky’s poor Derby trip has Baffert sending the colt to Baltimore. Ironically, Baffert has already said Lookin At Lucky won’t enter the Belmont Stakes on June 5 — further proof that entering the Preakness is more about confidence than crown fever.
The key is jockey Martin Garcia. Baffert was so upset over Garrett Gomez’s Derby ride that he replaced the nation’s leading money-earner the last four years. Garcia and Baffert have won seven stakes together this year so the latter knows the rider’s strengths.
Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky and Schoolyard Dreams figure to run together on the lead from the start. It’s a game of chicken inside a horse race. Lookin At Lucky gets a tactical edge inside Super Saver at the No. 7-8 posts, respectively, because it allows Garcia to better dictate the pace.
Does Super Saver jockey Calvin Borel, a three-time Derby winner, sucker Garcia into a quick opening three-quarters mile to burn out Lookin At Lucky? Borel won the Preakness last year and was second in 2007 in his only starts. Meanwhile, it’s Garcia’s first time.
It’s tempting to take Borel, but this time Lookin At Lucky is probably even with Super Saver entering the stretch and will have enough left to win by 1 1/2 lengths.
So much for another Triple Crown winner. Maybe next year.
Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Read more at TheRickSniderReport.com and Twitter @Snide_Remarks or e-mail [email protected].
