Patriots, Rams trying to build at-large case
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Guided by the holy grail of their craft, the Rating Percentage Index, bracketologists from around the country — from Joe Lunardi (ESPN) to Jerry Palm (CBS Sports) — have concluded that the CAA is destined for just one bid to the NCAA tournament.
Is it really possible that Virginia Commonwealth, coming off a Final Four appearance, could win as many as 28 games and not get an at-large bid? And is it possible that 2006 NCAA semifinalist George Mason could win 27 games and not get in?
These are the perplexing scenarios that haunt coaches Shaka Smart of VCU and Paul Hewitt of George Mason. Last year both teams came up short in the conference tournament and still received NCAA at-large bids. This year, they know that’s not in the cards.
| Up next |
| VCU at George Mason |
| When » Tuesday, 9 p.m. |
| Where » Patriot Center |
| TV » CSN+ |
When VCU (22-5, 13-2) plays at George Mason (21-6, 13-2) on Tuesday night, there is added pressure and less margin for error. This is the first of two games between the teams in a span of 12 days.
“The way the schedule breaks, with the top teams playing each other down the stretch here, you do have a chance to impress the people who are going to make the decision,” Hewitt said.
VCU and GMU are tied with Drexel (21-6, 13-2), which faces home games with weaklings James Madison (11-16, 4-11) and William & Mary (5-22, 3-12) before a tough season finale at Old Dominion (16-11, 11-4).
All the contenders are hot. Drexel has won 13 straight. VCU has won 11 in a row. GMU has won nine of its last 10. Both Smart and Hewitt believe that the CAA is a different league than it was the first two months of the season, when many teams were in transition, including their own.
“Mark Twain said there are three types of lies — lies, damn lies and statistics,” Smart said. “The reality is that the RPI and strength of schedule, most of that is based on what happens in November and December. I don’t think anyone would argue that the vast majority of teams in our league are extremely different [now].”
After graduating four starters, VCU lost three of its first six games. But as the Rams’ young rotation, which includes two freshmen and three sophomores, has gained experience, VCU has thrived with a familiar formula. The Rams lead the CAA in steals (10.3 per game) and turnover margin (plus-5.7 per game).
“They play extremely hard,” Hewitt said. “The one thing they do is they go out and play with a lot of energy, so if they’re not making shots they’re able to manufacture some points through offensive rebounds, transition buckets, steals.”
George Mason also is a better team than it was in November, when it was transitioning to Hewitt and starting three guards who had a combined one career start. The Patriots have been a better team since the December return of Andre Cornelius from suspension.
“They’re playing a lot of guys. They’re probably the deepest team in the league in that they have 10 consistent performers that play double-digit minutes,” Smart said. “Ryan Pearson is arguably the best player in the league. … He’s a matchup nightmare.”
