2009 College Basketball Outlook

Published November 11, 2009 5:00am ET



STORY LINES

1. Will it be about the basketball, or the coaches, in Kentucky? » New UK coach John Calipari is in the midst of having his second NCAA Final Four appearance vacated, but that hasn’t stopped him from ascending the coaching ranks to the pinnacle of traditional power conference basketball at Kentucky. Are the Wildcats boosters that desperate? Possibly, but winning clouds everything. And only a short drive away, Rick Pitino had the busiest offseason of any coach in the country, but it had nothing to do with recruiting — unless explaining to Louisville prospects what happened in his now infamous sex scandal counts as teaching. The players may not care, but that won’t make it go away.

Examiner Top 25 Kentucky out in frontIt’s not out of the realm of possibility to be waiting for the other shoe to drop on John Calipari and Kentucky, but the Wildcats do have John Wall and Patrick Patterson, so get used to seeing them on top, even if Kansas is still a prohibitive favorite. Even though the Big East starts strong, its influence should dwindle as the season progresses. As for the Hoyas and Terps, they’re better than national polls would have you believe.
1. Kentucky
2. Kansas
3. Texas
4. Michigan State
5. Villanova
6. Purdue
7. West Virginia
8. Connecticut
9. Butler
10. North Carolina
11. Tennessee
12. Washington
13. California
14. Ohio State
15. Georgetown
16. Duke
17. Minnesota
18. Maryland
19. Dayton
20. Michigan
21. Clemson
22. Siena
23. Mississippi State
24. Illinois
25. Oklahoma

2. Butler is the new Gonzaga. But who will be the next George Mason? » The preseason polls are nearly devoid of programs beside those hailing from BCS conferences, and although it’s expected, it’s also a bummer. The Butler Bulldogs, led by Matt Howard (14.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Gordon Hayward (13.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg), will either help or hurt themselves badly with three games in their first eight against ranked teams (Minnesota, Georgetown and Ohio State). Meanwhile, Dayton, Siena, Xavier, the top half of the CAA, and yes, Gonzaga, are all looking for respect, but doing much more than making noise in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament just seems far-fetched.

3. Can Purdue be this year’s Michigan State? » Michigan State’s 2009 NCAA run added intrigue and volume to the Final Four as it was staged at Ford Field in Detroit, 90 miles from East Lansing. This year, with the Final Four in Indianapolis, there is another Big Ten team with the potential to raise the roof. Purdue, 70 miles away in West Lafayette, returns its top six players — including Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson — from a Big Ten Tournament championship team, making it likely that coach Matt Painter will continue his upward trend. In four seasons under Painter, Purdue has improved from 9 wins to 22 to 25 to 27 and a Sweet 16 appearance.

GAME OF THE WEEK


Gonzaga at Michigan St., Tuesday, 8 p.m., ESPN

No team plays a more challenging non-conference schedule that Gonzaga. By the time the Zags hit New Year’s Day, they will have faced eight power conference schools, a tough route for a team reloading with nine freshmen. The most daunting foe is Michigan State. Last year’s NCAA runner-up is propelled by last year’s Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas. Gonzaga looks to senior G Matt Bouldin (13.6 points per game) to blend with newcomers Mangisto Arop (wing), G.J. Vilarino (point), and Sam Dower (center).


PLAYER TO WATCH

Marcus Ginyard, G-F, senior, North Carolina
When Ginyard went down last season with a stress fracture in his left foot, some said the Tar Heels couldn’t win without their versatile facilitator. But with Ginyard as its most conspicuous cheerleader, talented North Carolina rolled to its fifth national championship. Now, after a redshirt year, the 6-foot-5 senior is back, providing cohesion to a team loaded with talented parts, but lacking experience. Ginyard, who played at O’Connell, is coach Roy Williams’ Swiss Army knife, able to work at four positions, guard go-to players big and small, and hit big shots in the clutch.