The regular season is over, but the conference championships are still up for grabs. Who will make the College Football Playoff? I went 0-3 straight up and against the spread last week, bringing my overall numbers (thru 10 weeks of picking games) to 19-11 straight up and 16-14 against the spread. Here are the three conference title games you should have your eye on:
No. 1 Alabama (12-0, 8-0) vs. No. 4 Georgia (11-1, 7-1) – 4:00 p.m. ET on CBS
This is the game I’ve been waiting for all season long, the rematch of last year’s national championship game. In case you forgot what happened, the Crimson Tide beat the Bulldogs in overtime in an instant classic that made true freshman Tua Tagovailoa a household name and turned the hype machine on ‘Bama’s current season to 11.
There’s a very good reason that Tua’s a lock for SEC Offensive Player of the Year and the front-runner to win the Heisman. He’s the nation’s most efficient passer, he’s top-five in points responsible for, and he’s top-five in passing touchdowns. Tua has thrown for nearly 3,200 yards this season with 36 passing touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’s completing passes at a 70.3 percent clip and even has five rushing touchdowns to boot.
Alabama has won all of its games this season by at least 22 points, a standard that is simply absurd. Tua, in his first year as a starter, has unlocked the Crimson Tide playbook and allowed them to become so much more dangerous offensively than they’ve ever been under Nick Saban.
Georgia signal-caller Jake Fromm is rock-solid and incredibly efficient, but he doesn’t have Tua’s dynamic athleticism or his incredible touch. D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield are an outstanding backfield duo, but they’ll have to be excellent for Georgia to have a chance.
Alabama is averaging 49 points per game and averaging just under 14 points per game allowed. They have been taking folks to the woodshed game after game. The Tide will score points. Can Georgia keep up?
There are two key battles that I think will determine the outcome of the game: Georgia’s offensive line against Alabama’s defensive line and the Georgia defense, particularly the linebackers and secondary, against Alabama’s prolific offense. If Georgia can establish the run early, the Bulldogs will be able to hang in there against one of the best Alabama teams ever assembled.
The Line: Alabama (-13.5)
My Pick: This is a lot of points to throw out there against a great team like Georgia. I expected Alabama to run roughshod over LSU, but I don’t think we’ll see that against the Bulldogs. I’m picking the Tide to win by double digits, but I don’t think they’ll win by two touchdowns, so I’d take the points.
No. 14 Texas (9-3, 7-2) at No. 5 Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1) – Noon p.m. ET on ABC
Texas stunned top-10 Oklahoma in week six, leading to a reckoning for the Sooners. They’ve been undefeated since and now face their archrivals for the Big 12 title. Oklahoma is on the outside looking in for the CFP. They need to win this game to have any shot at making the playoff. A Georgia loss would certainly help get Oklahoma inside the top four, and it helps that the Bulldogs have to face undefeated and top-ranked Alabama.
Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray is a stud. He’s No. 1 nationally in Total QBR (96.1), second in touchdowns responsible for (48), second in total offense per game (377.3) and yards per play (10.8). The Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year has thrown for nearly 3,700 yards at a 70.6 percent clip with 37 passing touchdowns and just seven picks. He is a legitimate Heisman contender.
Longhorns quarterback Sam Ehlinger has been fantastic this year as well, throwing for 23 touchdowns and just four picks with 11 rushing touchdowns. However, he had a very poor game against Kansas last week. In fact, it was his worst quarterback rating of the season. Is that a one-off or will it carry over into the conference title game?
Texas wide receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey is a big-time playmaker and had nine catches for 133 yards and a touchdown when these two teams met earlier this year. Could he have another big game against a weakened Oklahoma secondary?
One of the big keys to this game will be Kyler Murray and how quickly he gets Oklahoma started on offense. If he can pick up some first downs early with his feet, that could really change and complicate the way Texas tries to defend the Sooners. One of the other big keys will be whether Texas’ wide receivers can repeatedly burn the OU secondary for big gains like they did in back week six. Ehlinger completed nearly 69 percent of his passes and threw for more than 300 yards and two scores in that win while also running for three touchdowns.
He has been playing through a shoulder injury during the second half of the season and has still managed to put together some great performances. We’ll see if he can manage yet another in the biggest game of his career.
The Line: Oklahoma (-8.0)
My Pick: Kyler Murray could potentially steal the Heisman trophy away from Tua with a phenomenal game that launches Oklahoma into the CFP. OU started slow against Texas in the Red River Shootout and then made it a game. I don’t think Murray and the Sooners will make the same mistake twice. I’m taking them to win and cover.
No. 21 Northwestern (8-4, 8-1) vs. No. 6 Ohio State (11-1, 8-1) – 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year Dwayne Haskins leads the nation in passing touchdowns with 42 and is second in passing yards with 4,081. He absolutely deserves a trip to New York as a Heisman candidate, even though he still trails Tua and Kyler Murray. The guy has been nothing short of sensational. He broke the Big Ten’s single-season records for passing yards and passing touchdowns in his first year as a starter. He had a combined six touchdowns in Ohio State’s overtime win at Maryland two weeks ago and then threw for six touchdowns and nearly 400 yards last week in the biggest game of his life.
Ohio State is playing its best football at the right time, and that makes Urban Meyer’s squad one of the most dangerous in the country. Senior wide receiver Parris Campbell eviscerated the Wolverines last week, catching six passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns, while backup running back Mike Weber averaged 7.4 yards per carry on the ground and nearly reached 100 yards rushing. The depth and talent on offense for this Buckeyes squad is pretty incredible.
Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald was the unanimous Big Ten Coach of the Year for the work he did in steering the Wildcats to their first-ever Big Ten West division title. Putting the two early-season losses to Duke and Akron aside, Northwestern only lost to Michigan by 3 and Notre Dame by 10. This team is dangerous.
The Wildcats are incredibly effective at limiting opposing teams’ possessions with a slow, plodding, and bruising mentality that takes a toll on opponents. Their offense isn’t very efficient, but they’ve been able to grind out wins. Clayton Thorson is the winningest-QB in NU history. I don’t expect him to wow anyone offensively, but I think he’s more than capable of picking up some first downs and extending drives with his feet while continuing to stay with Northwestern’s conservative game plan. Northwestern running back Isaiah Bowser has run for more than 100 yards in four of his last six games, and he’ll need to be great for the Wildcats to have a shot at pulling off the upset.
Northwestern’s defensive line only has 17 sacks so far this season. For Northwestern to succeed defensively, the Wildcats will need to apply a lot more pressure on Haskins and throw him off his rhythm.
The Wildcats average 23.7 points per game on offense and allow 21.7 points per game on defense. On the surface, they’re not much to look at and they definitely represent a throw-back version of the game stylistically, especially when compared to the wide-open Ohio State passing offense and spread attacks that have become commonplace across the country.
Here’s the bottom line: After upsetting Michigan in The Game, Ohio State still has a chance at making the CFP.
Ironically, the Buckeyes could still get left out in the cold after winning the Big Ten title. In the 2016-2017 season, Ohio State watched as Penn State, a team that beat them earlier in the season, won the Big Ten title and still didn’t make the playoff. The Buckeyes made it in ahead of Penn State and promptly got demolished by Clemson.
I think Ohio State needs to win emphatically and still get help in order to make the committee’s final four.
The Line: Ohio State (-14.0)
My Pick: Northwestern will put up a fight, but Ohio State has a far superior quarterback, better athletes and a better overall team. I’m taking the Buckeyes to win and cover.
Playoff predictions: When Saturday’s final games are done, how will the College Football Playoff selection committee set their bracket? Here’s my prediction:
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma
Check back here next week for a preview of the Army/Navy game (one of the greatest traditions in sports) and later this month for can’t-miss bowl games.
Noah Niederhoffer (@Noah715) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
