Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is bigger, more experienced in an NFL offense and considered the most sure pick since, well, the guy he’ll be replacing. It’s why the chance of him going anywhere but first overall is a major long shot. Robert Griffin III is considered by some to have greater potential. But Luck’s body of work in college outshines everyone else.
“Luck is as sure a bet as Peyton Manning was,” one longtime NFL general manager said. “I don’t see any real downside or miss on him. There’s no comparison. You don’t always see a guy like Luck.”
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Another longtime evaluator said he hasn’t talked to anyone that gives him an indication that Luck will fall to No. 2. For him, Luck’s size (6-foot-4, 235 pounds) and college system — a pro-style vs. the spread attack operated by Griffin — makes the difference.
Pro Football Weekly’s NFL draft analyst Nolan Nawrocki said “there is a considerable gap. Andrew is the most polished QB to come out in a long time. Griffin’s ceiling is higher … but there is higher risk with the pick. I think the Colts made up their mind months ago.”
To be clear, the longtime GM liked Griffin a lot, but he had more questions about him than with Luck — from scheme to durability to accuracy on intermediate throws (and he’s not talking completion percentage). Also, the fact that Luck played at a high level for three seasons trumps Griffin doing it for one. But in comparing the two, he just liked Luck more. Luck plays with a maturity beyond most college QBs, with the way he moves safeties with his eyes and calls plays at the line, for example. Griffin can get to that point; Luck is there. He did not think Griffin was as good a prospect as Cam Newton.
Teams throw curves all the time and can hide intentions by not working out players you are sold on (the Colts have no visit scheduled with Griffin). But the team picking first has no reason to play games with other teams. And if RG III is not scheduled for a workout, then …
– John Keim
