Master of Hounds will win Saturday’s Belmont Stakes. He’ll even pay 10-1.
The final race of the Triple Crown will end no differently than the first two — with a surprise winner with little resume. Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby with only a modest stakes race beforehand. Shackleford took the Preakness Stakes after losing three career stakes races decisively.
In a large 12-horse field, the Belmont has the top seven finishers from the Derby for the first time but few real contenders. It’s supposed to be the rubber match between Animal Kingdom and Shackleford, but the two were so uninspiring that a fistful of long shots entered the race, too.
The Belmont isn’t easy to define. While the Derby is about survival in a 20-horse field and the Preakness is known for tactical speed and smart riders, the Belmont offers a little bit of everything over its 1? miles. The longest annual U.S. stakes race is often a 1-mile jog and a half-mile sprint. Its half-mile stretch fools jockeys into moving too early, only to lose the lead at the eighth pole. Belmont rewards local trainers and jockeys that know its nuances much more than Churchill Downs and Pimlico.
Master of Hounds is a solid Irish stakes winner who finished fifth in the Derby — and would have done better had the race been longer. The Belmont will play to his Mr. Prospector bloodlines. He won’t lead until the last eighth of a mile, but that’s all that matters.
Animal Kingdom will continue a steady Triple Crown by finishing second, just like the Preakness. Trainer Graham Motion is a master of distance races, and Animal Kingdom appeared sharp enough in the Preakness to have something left for the Belmont.
Shackleford won’t do as well after outlasting Animal Kingdom in the Preakness. Animal Kingdom’s jockey misjudged the early pace and couldn’t make up 15 lengths on a track that hates late runners, but this time Shackleford won’t be able to steal the race early and will be run down for fifth.
Instead, use Santiva in your triples. The fifth-place Derby finisher was game at the end and showed talent last fall. Maybe he just needed a couple outings, but Santiva is sitting on a big race.
Conversely, Mucho Macho Man smells of a bad effort coming. He lost a shoe in the past two races, so his new footwear practically has been cemented on, but the colt is still 2-for-10 lifetime and lost his last three stakes. The shoe is a nice excuse, but look for Mucho Macho Man to fall back.
Definitely don’t be fooled by Nehro’s three straight second-place finishes in the Louisiana, Arkansas and Kentucky derbies. Losing is losing, and horses like this are called money-burners. They simply lack the will to win despite the talent.
Losing Uncle Mo on the eve of the Triple Crown was costly. The series is simply full of B-listers. For 2? minutes, though, Master of Hounds will shine.
Examiner columnist Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Read more on Twitter @Snide_Remarks or email [email protected].
