Cautionary tales at NFL combine

Published February 24, 2010 5:00am ET



Most QBs will wait to throw at pro days

FIVE TO WATCHQB Sam Bradford » He won’t throw at the combine, saving that for his pro day in March. However, this is the first chance for teams to check out his surgically-repaired shoulder. If he checks out fine, he’ll cement himself as a top-five pick.
QB Colt McCoy » Like Bradford, he’s coming off an injury (a pinched nerve suffered in the national championship game). McCoy is not considered by most a first-round pick, but if he’s not healthy he could slip to the fourth round, some experts warn.
QB Jimmy Clausen » Notice a pattern here with quarterbacks? There are concerns that Clausen is shorter than his listed height of 6-foot-3. If he measures much smaller than that, he could fall out of the first round. If not, he’s a possible top-10 pick.
RB LeGarrette Blount » The former Oregon standout, suspended for part of the season after punching out a Boise State player, is rising after a strong Senior Bowl performance. But he needs to continue showing that he’s not a risk, something he can help do in interviews. Right now, he’s a third- to fifth-round pick.
OT Rodger Saffold » Never heard of him? You might after this week. The Indiana product has had a good offseason and a strong showing at the combine could vault him into the second round. His athleticism and strength will help him in this setting.

The warnings occur each year as players ascend draft charts based, it seems, on their scouting combine workouts. Darrius Heyward-Bey ran a fast 40-yard dash; the Raiders drafted him seventh; he produced little. Mike Mamula showed strength and vaulted into the top 10; he lasted five years. Vernon Gholston wowed everyone, until he was drafted sixth and showed that he shouldn’t have been.

And now the NFL combine begins once again, with some players ready to rise up the draft boards. Or to fall.

For the Redskins, it may also be a chance to determine if they’ve found a player capable of being a franchise quarterback.

Heyward-Bey rose last year, in the eyes of one team at least, by running the 40-yard dash in 4.3 seconds. But most teams know that they can’t simply go off what a player does in Indianapolis over the next week.

And they can’t just use numbers to justify drafting a player. Scouts and executives will say that the 40-yard dash time is helpful because it provides a consistent way to measure players at certain positions over the course of time.

For example, corners who run a 4.6 40 do not last long, even if they look like they are decent on tape.

Teams can interview players at the combine, which is helpful. But people involved in the process also say that players are more prepared than ever, making their answers seem rehearsed.

What won’t happen this week is being able to watch quarterbacks throw. Most of the top-rated quarterbacks, save for Cincinnati’s Tony Pike — projected to go in rounds three or four — have opted not to throw this week. They’d rather throw during their pro days at their school.

“The key word out of the combine is compete,” said NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock. “[Scouts] want to see players that aren’t afraid to compete.”

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said, “At individual workouts, you feel more comfortable. That’s where you have the better chance to negate some of the concerns.”

Considering the Redskins likely are in the market for a quarterback, that’s not helpful. By having quarterbacks wait until their pro days, it robs teams of a chance to compare the arm strength of each one.

However, what is beneficial is the physical evaluation. Mayock said one player, if he checks out physically, should be on the Redskins list for the fourth pick: Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford.

“There’s a school of thought that you better upgrade that offensive line before drafting a quarterback or he may get killed,” Mayock said. “But I always go back to the quarterback trumps everything. Bradford is a franchise quarterback, but he has to check out medically.”


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