The Lock
Blake Griffin, Oklahoma
Being the number one player in the NBA draft is an enviable position, except when the pick is owned by Los Angeles Clippers. Michael Olowokandi (1998) and Danny Manning (1988) couldn’t change the fortunes of the NBA’s most inept franchise, but Griffin is expected to saddle just that kind of burden on his athletic and physical 6-foot-10, 248-pound frame. His size and determination easily make up for his youth — he’s just 20 years old — and his still unrefined scoring ability for the NBA level.
Excitable Executives
New Minnesota general manager David Kahn displayed his determination to rebuild the Timberwolves by adding the fifth pick from the Wizards to total four selections in the first round. It will be surprising if Minnesota keeps them all. But don’t doubt Danny Ainge and the Celtics also making a splash, not to mention Mark Cuban and the Mavericks, and it wouldn’t be the offseason if the New York Knicks weren’t high among rumored teams trying hard to position themselves to get “their guy” and please the home crowd at Madison Square Garden. Milwaukee’s Charlie Villanueva promised more fireworks via his Twitter account — perhaps some for him personally? Also, keep in mind the one team that feels it is a piece or two away from a championship — Cleveland.
The Sweet Six
Would these players still be automatic top 10 picks in a stronger draft? It’s hard to say.
But they’ll go that early on Thursday night, and they’re solid enough prospects to be highly desired by at least a couple of teams or more. Any moves to get them will be the top story lines come Friday morning.
Even if he’s an endless project at the offensive end, who may be remembered in college for getting flipped by a player nine-inches shorter than him, few NBA teams can turn down the temptation to add the instant defense offered by 7-foot-3 shot blocker Hasheem Thabeet.
Scoring sensation James Harden also had more numbers (20.1 ppg, 4.2 apg last season) than memorable moments during his two years at Arizona State, and he remains the draft’s top shooting guard. But combo point man Tyreke Evans has better size (6-5) and is a more dominant presence, and 6-3 Stephen Curry’s pedigree, basketball IQ and silky smooth jumper make him the surest thing among this half-dozen. He doesn’t have to be a franchise player, but any franchise would benefit from having him.
Despite being just 18, Ricky Rubio, a 6-5 point guard, has a lot prove to live up to the hype he’s bringing with him from Spain, while it’s all gravy for 6-10 power forward Jordan Hill, who was never expected to be in this group but whose prospects have risen as quickly as he moves in the low post.
The Upside Quartet
Get these guys while the gettin’ is good. Just don’t jump the gun.
There is no better way to explain the attraction to point guard Jonny Flynn, a generous 6-1, but a dynamo who put his heart and soul in the national discourse in Syracuse’s six-overtime win over Connecticut in the Big East tournament. His vertical (40 inches) was also as impressive as his predraft interviews.
USC swingman DeMar DeRozan and UCLA guard Jrue Holiday were always projected as one-and-done college players. DeRozan, 6-6, said he can jump as high as Vince Carter but athleticism alone won’t suffice in the NBA. Holiday (6-4) has seen his draft prospects all over the map, yet they’ve steadily improved as June 25 has approached.
Brandon Jennings (6-2) has a compelling game (a fearless lefty point guard) and story (skipped out on college to play pro in Italy), both with more upside than results.
The Role Shifters
No professional league does better than the NBA at taking award winning college players and feeding them a taste of humble pie. But that doesn’t mean they can’t have long and successful careers — it just won’t be as the Big Man on Campus.
Tyler Hansbrough and his work ethic was the subject of endless attention at North Carolina. It may have been partly because he stayed four years, a.k.a. an eternity, but he’s still big enough (6-9) and relentless enough to carve out space for rebounds and points in the NBA pain. The same goes for Pittsburgh wide body DeJuan Blair (6-7) and lengthy Louisville big man Earl Clark (6-10).
Late in the lottery, teams will be drawn to Terrence Williams (6-6), who made his living as a point forward for Louisville, and Gerald Henderson (6-5), Duke’s slashing jack-of-all-trades scorer. But both need to focus on perimeter defense to find minutes at the next level.
