Final Four previews and predictions

Let’s take a quick look at how each team got here and who I think will be advancing to the national title game on Monday, April 8.

Texas Tech (3) vs. Michigan State (2)

The Red Raiders ended Kansas’ record-breaking stranglehold on the Big 12 regular season title and then crashed out of the Big 12 tournament against West Virginia in the quarterfinals. It has been surprisingly smooth sailing for Texas Tech since then. This is how the Red Raiders ended up in Minneapolis:

• Win over No. 14 Northern Kentucky (72-57)
• Win over No. 6 Buffalo (78-58)
• Win over No. 2 Michigan (63-44)
• Win over No. 1 Gonzaga (75-69)

Texas Tech has a top-five scoring defense nationally, and they’ve used it to smother opponents. Jarrett Culver, the Big 12 Player of the Year, is one of the top-five NBA draft prospects in the entire NCAA tournament behind guys like Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

Culver posted 29 points, eight boards, and seven assists in Texas Tech’s opening game against Northern Kentucky and scored 22 points to go alongside four rebounds and four assists in the blowout win against Michigan. However, Culver struggled against Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, shooting 5-for-19 from the field. That ended up being the closest game that Texas Tech has played thus far in the tournament.

If Culver gets going and keeps teammates involved, Texas Tech has shown they have a defense that can stymie almost any team in the country. If Culver struggles, Texas Tech will be hard-pressed to find answers against a disciplined and experienced squad in Michigan State. Chris Beard has never coached in a Final Four, and Texas Tech is making its first-ever Final Four appearance. Will the moment be too big and the stage too bright for this squad?

Speaking of the Spartans, they made a triumphant return to the Final Four after an epic upset over the top-seeded and heavily favored Duke Blue Devils.

Are the Spartans ready for another slugfest after that emotional back-and-forth game? Only time will tell, but first, let’s take a look at how they got here:

• Win over No. 15 Bradley (76-65)
• Win over No. 10 Minnesota (70-50)
• Win over No. 3 LSU (80-63)
• Win over No. 1 Duke (68-67)

Cassius Winston, Michigan State’s star guard, put the team on his back and helped carry them past a loaded Duke squad. Kenny Goins’ three to give the Spartans the lead will live on forever in Michigan State lore, but they wouldn’t have been in that position had it not been for Winston. He played all 40 minutes and finished with 20 points, 10 rebounds, four steals, and only one turnover. Winston is top-five nationally in assists per game and is basically an extension of Tom Izzo on the floor.

Michigan State has four players averaging double-digit points per game and Matt McQuaid averages 9.8, so Izzo’s squad appears to be the more balanced team offensively. That’s exactly what they’ll have to be if the Red Raiders end up trying to swarm and frustrate Winston.

This is Izzo’s eighth trip to the Final Four as coach of the Spartans. That’s an incredible number, especially when you consider that all three of the remaining coaches are coaching in it for the first time. Experience always counts for something in tense moments.

My prediction: Michigan State’s win over Duke didn’t prove that they were more talented than the Blue Devils, but they made the shots down the stretch and executed in the big moments. When they needed a bucket late, they got it and then held on defensively. Izzo is really, really good at this. I don’t think he’ll be able to take Culver out of the game completely, but I think he’ll be able to mitigate his impact. The Spartans could still win without a great shooting night from Winston, but I don’t think the Red Raiders will be able to advance without a big game from their star guard and future NBA lottery pick.

I’ll take Sparty to advance.

Virginia (1) vs. Auburn (5)

From a historic and ignominious defeat in 2018 to a Final Four run in 2019. God, I love March Madness. Here’s how Virginia made its run to the semis:

• Win over No. 16 Gardner-Webb (71-56)
• Win over No. 9 Oklahoma (63-51)
• Win over No. 12 Oregon (53-49)
• Win over No. 3 Purdue (80-75 OT)

Virginia became a punchline after losing to 16-seed University of Maryland, Baltimore County in 2018. They’ll now always be the answer to that trivia question of the first and only number-one seed to lose to a sixteen seed in the NCAA Tournament. The ACC regular season co-champs used that as fuel this season. While they struggled in the first round, had to hang on against Oregon in the Sweet 16, and survived an all-time classic against Purdue with a buzzer-beater just to force overtime, they’re the ones laughing now.

The Cavaliers have the nation’s top defense and are more balanced offensively than any team that Tony Bennett has had during his time at the helm. After scoring eight, four, and 10 points in the first three games of the tournament, Virginia’s leading scorer, Kyle Guy, erupted for 25 points and 10 rebounds in the overtime win against Purdue.

If any other team’s leading scorer had combined for 12 points in the first two games of the tournament, that would probably be serious cause for concern. But not Virginia. They’ve had a different leading scorer in all four of its games. Ty Jerome does so many things well for the Cavaliers and pairs so well with Guy in the backcourt. Based on last year, you could definitely make a case that they’re a team of destiny in this tournament.

However, you could also make a case that their opponent, the Auburn Tigers, are the real team of destiny in this year’s NCAA Tournament! Here’s how they made their way to Minneapolis:

• Win over No. 12 New Mexico State (78-77)
• Win over No. 4 Kansas (89-75)
• Win over No. 1 North Carolina (97-80)
• Win over No. 2 Kentucky (77-71 OT)

The Tigers gave New Mexico State chance after chance to beat them and New Mexico State failed to take advantage. Demolishing Kansas and UNC and then beating Kentucky to make the Final Four after barely surviving a measly first-round opponent from the Western Athletic Conference? That’s a team of destiny, folks.

Chuma Okeke, Auburn’s best NBA prospect, tore his ACL in the Sweet 16. The Tigers still managed to advance to the Final Four without him, but his absence will loom large against a defensive monster in Virginia. Jared Harper was the hero against Kentucky with 26 points, five assists, and four rebounds to go along with three steals and a pair of blocks.

The Tigers are at their best when they force turnovers and get out and run. They love to push the ball in transition, and they love to take threes. In fact, only one team in the country has attempted more threes than the Tigers. They force turnovers on about a quarter of their opponents’ possessions. That’s a West Virginia-like pace. It’s frenetic but almost like organized chaos when the Tigers go into attack mode on defense and get into transition.

My prediction: As I said earlier, Auburn likes to force turnovers and shoot threes. That will probably be an issue on Saturday. Virginia is the fourth-best team in the country when it comes to limiting turnovers, a top-10 team when it comes to shooting the three, and the fourth-best team in the country when it comes to defending the three. Virginia’s opponents are a paltry 28.7% from beyond the arc. I think both of these teams can lay claim to being a team of destiny, but I think the more disciplined and much better defensive team will win the day, especially with one of Auburn’s key players out with an injury.

I’m going with Virginia, and its story of redemption, to advance to the national title game.

Check back here Monday morning for my preview and prediction for the national title game.

Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.