This isn’t so much a prediction as just a guess, but it’s looking like Adam Dunn won’t be back with the Nationals in 2011. I could be wrong, but unless the club offers him arbitration and he accepts, I tend to believe he’ll end up elsewhere.
Hey, I like Dunn as much as anyone. He’s like a lefty-swinging Frank Howard: big body, slow afoot, not great defensively, loved by his teammates, adored by the fans for his personality and massive home runs. There are a few not-so-tiny facts, however, that loom large in his legend.
Number one, he’s never really played for a winner, unless you count the 44 games he played for Arizona in 2008 when they went 82-80 and made no attempt to re-sign him once the season ended.
Number two, the Nationals had next to no competition for his services when they signed him just prior to the start of spring training 2009. A two-year $20 million deal was pretty cheap for a guy who’d averaged 40 home runs for six years.
Number three, he’ll likely never be more than adequate at first base. He talks a lot about working hard to get better, but beyond simple infield practice — which doesn’t even happen every day — he’s not coming out early or staying late to take any additional ground balls or low throws. I saw a recent stat that basically said of every 100 throws in the dirt, Adam saves less than 60 percent of them, where Mark Teixeira saves more than 95 percent of them.
Replacing Dunn at first for Washington may not be terribly difficult. Josh Willingham has played the position, and as a former catcher, would probably be more adept at keeping the ball in front of him. Michael Morse has played more than half of his big league career in the infield and would be another worthy candidate.
I’m not sure why Washington would have a lot of interest in the Rays’ Carlos Pena as a free agent. His offensive numbers have trended steadily downward the past four years. I’d be far more interested in another lefty-swinging Adam: Adam LaRoche, late of Arizona, who’s got 25-30 home run power. He doesn’t walk or strike out as much as Dunn, but his glove is well above average.
It’s possible that circumstances may force Dunn back to Washington, either through the arbitration process or the lack of any better offers. The Cubs are known to be interested, and his bat would play well at Wrigley Field. The last power-hitting, weak fielding Nat to depart for the second city, Alfonso Soriano, hasn’t enjoyed the success predicted for him there, and his contract has been an albatross for the Cubs. That experience may dictate what they offer Dunn.
Whatever the outcome, Adam Dunn’s two seasons in Washington have been memorable. Would his absence have a serious negative impact on the Nats’ fortunes in 2011 and beyond? Probably not, but there are more than a few fans who will dispute that contention.
Examiner columnist Phil Wood is a contributor to Nats Xtra on MASN. Contact him at [email protected].
