Ryan Zimmerman
#8 / Third Base
Height » 6-3
Weight » 230
Age » 26
Contract status » $9 million (unrestricted free agent – 2013)
Zimmerman has become everything the Nats hoped when they drafted him No. 4 overall in 2005. He’s one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball. He’s increased his OPS each of the last two years and finished at .899, ranked 16th among all major-league players. That kind of production makes him among the sport’s most valuable players and a steal even while averaging $9 million a season. Zimmerman batted .307 with 25 home runs and 85 RBI in 2010. FanGraphs has him fourth in their version of WAR (7.1) for position players and Baseball Reference – with a little less emphasis on defensive value in their WAR stat – places him seventh (5.3).
Zimmerman’s home runs dropped from 33 last season. But while his slugging percentage was down slightly, too – .510 from .525 – his on-base percentage shot up from .364 to a career-high .388. Also struck out 21 fewer times (98) despite playing in 15 fewer games. In fact, that’s one of the few negatives from this season – Zimmerman battled a hamstring injury in April and had his season end prematurely thanks to a strained muscle around his rib cage in September. Even still, he played in all but 20 of Washington’s games and has been one of its most durable players save for 2008 when a shoulder injury limited him to 106.
Zimmerman walked 69 times – down three from 2009, but again in fewer games. His strikeout and walk rates show an improving plate discipline. It didn’t hurt that he had slugger Adam Dunn hitting behind him again.
At third, Zimmerman posted a 17.3 UZR/150. Only San Diego’s Chase Headley (19.0) was better at the position. Only five players overall had a higher UZR/150. The other four were outfielders. He did make 17 errors this season – same as 2009 – and occasionally had issues with his throwing motion. That’s happened in the past, though never enough to be a serious problem. Fielding percentage dropped to the lowest of his career at .951.
Zimmerman did become far more outspoken this season about the Nats keeping their core players together. He said so when Dunn was rumored on the trading block in July and again when it was clear the team would not re-sign Dunn during the season. Let’s say it doesn’t happen in the offseason, either. Dunn is free to go anywhere he wants, after all.
It’s time to start thinking about the clock ticking away on Zimmerman’s deal. The organization signed him to a five-year contract in 2009. We’re now done with two of those years. The Nats are on the verge of losing their top slugger and won’t have Stephen Strasburg for the competitive portion of the 2011 season. If you go into 2012 with six straight losing seasons – most of them memorably terrible – do you really expect your star third baseman to stick around? Zimmerman will have two years left on his deal at that point. A lot can happen between now and then and the roster is a solid bet to look far different then than it does now. Think of all the guys on the 40-man roster at the end of the 2008 season and who is here now. Still, by midsummer of 2012 – just 21 months away – you have to start entertaining trade offers if contention appears far away.
Is that a pessimistic look way down the road? Maybe. But it just shows the Nats’ ability to build a winner with Zimmerman is shorter than you think. Summer of 2012 we’ll have a better notion about Strasburg’s health and Bryce Harper’s progress. If the results aren’t promising then a 27-year-old Zimmerman will start looking at his options.
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