Mud pie may be the new Kentucky Derby delicacy on Saturday.
The Derby field already stinks. There is no second coming of Secretariat in this field. Not even a third coming of Mr. Ed. Maybe a fourth cousin of Francis the talking mule.
Throw in an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms in Louisville for not one, but two downpours on Saturday and it’s not about the horse’s sire, but his mudder when it comes to picking the winner.
Seriously, the Derby is always an impossible race to handicap considering 20 horses are entered — the most by six of any U.S. race annually. Half the field simply gets in the way, making luck as important as talent. Of the remaining 10, most would win the race if it ran 20 times. American Lion, Paddy O’Prado, Noble’s Promise, Dublin, Ice Box and Stately Victor all have a chance.
But favorite Lookin At Lucky and second choice Sidney’s Candy are clearly the best. Too bad they drew the two worst post positions.
Horses with early speed are divas. They’re used to running on the lead without dirt in their face. Now, they’re not only pinballed in a crowded run to the first turn, but repeatedly stung by huge globs of mud. It takes something out of them.
That’s why Lookin At Lucky won’t win. He’s stuck in the No. 1 post and will be eliminated by conditions. Trained by Bob Baffert, Lookin At Lucky has the tactical early speed to wait for the stretch to rally, but this track will compromise him early when he’s caught in a muddy pileup.
Ironically, Sidney’s Candy benefits from the No. 20 post because he has enough early speed to cross the field and steal this race off the lead. On a dry track, Lookin At Lucky would win, but Sidney’s Candy gets the tactical benefit of a wet track if he can jump the field immediately. When others tire at the top of Heartbreak Lane, Sidney’s Candy will repel late comers while paying 8-1.
The exacta pick is Dublin. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Dublin is one of those money-burners who finish in the top three regularly without winning. He’ll come hard late and make everyone talk about winning the Preakness.
The triple is Paddy O’Prado, a turf horse ridden by former Maryland phenom Kent Desormeaux. He can handle the mud.
Want long shot plays? Stately Victor is another mudder while American Lion might steal it early.
The race takes two minutes, but this mediocre field caught in a soup will be forgotten two minutes later.
Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Read more at TheRickSniderReport.com and Twitter @Snide_Remarks or e-mail [email protected].
