Starting 11: Redskins vs. Packers

1. How big an impact is not having Albert Haynesworth? Obviously it’s a big loss, especially with the way he played vs. Philadelphia. He wasn’t perfect, but he did at least have an impact. Plus with how much Green Bay will pass, it’s imperative to get a rush – especially a four-man one. Without Haynesworth that will be tougher.

2.   Who will replace him? Not sure yet, but if the Redskins will be in nickel, it makes sense to have Vonnie Holliday play. He’s obviously not the same threat as Haynesworth. But Holliday does have a skill in this situation. He plays well with the blitz. Watch how Holliday slants and what happens. For example, he’ll slant inside and taking the center and backside guard out of the play. An end or linebacker will rush wide taking the tackle. That opens a blitz lane. Holliday indeed does the dirty work. He’s not a big-time rush threat, but he can help.

3.   What is the impact of Trent Williams’ return? Well, the Redskins won’t have to worry about multiple false start penalties in the second half for one thing. Stephon Heyer was OK, but he is what he is, a backup tackle. It’ll be interesting to see how many two tight end sets they use with Williams back, especially in protection. They don’t give Williams a lot of help and that will help them provide more protection elsewhere. Considering how strong the pass rush is, this will be important.

4.   Who will match up vs. Clay Matthews Jr.? Probably everyone. But he is listed as a left outside linebacker; that means Jammal Brown might handle the bulk of the duty. Why not? But the Packers will move him around quite a bit; he has at least two sacks from the right, left and middle. They will seek the mismatch and exploit it.

5.   How strong is Green Bay’s run defense? Pretty strong. It’s wise to ignore their 5.2 yards per carry allowed average. Why? Because quarterbacks have accounted for 206 of the 473 rushing yards allowed. However, losing middle linebacker Nick Barnett hurts. Nose guard B.J. Raji has started to improve, but he’s not a strong consistent lineman yet. If the Redskins want to run the ball, they will be able to in short chunks, enough to keep alive the play-action passing attack. Ryan Torain should be fine. But that’s all he needs to be. If Ryan Torain averages around 3.5 to 4.0 yards per carry, allowing the Redskins to grind it out, that would be fine. The matchup I worry about is Kory Lichtensteiger vs. Cullen Jenkins. The ‘Steiger needs to hold his ground better.

6.   How good is Charles Woodson? Very good. If they put him on Santana Moss, he has the edge. Woodson is still a playmaker. But the question is, will they be forced to use him more as a safety in a nickel situation? It’s worth watching.

7.   Where is Green Bay vulnerable? In the air, especially with safety Morgan Burnett out for the season. His replacement, Charlie Peprah, is not fast and is a better special teams player. Sounds like their Reed Doughty. They struggled vs. tight ends in the Detroit game, allowing 14 receptions to that position. Hello Chris Cooley. With LB Brandon Chillar possibly sidelined, this could be a lingering issue. Also, LB A.J. Hawk is a bit undersized so they might be able to wear him down a little. Green Bay has good ends vs. the run so that will be a challenge.

8.   Can the Redskins stop this offense? Not sure anyone really can. But they have to limit big plays to Greg Jennings. He hasn’t gotten going in the past few games and that means he’s either starting to decline or teams are doing a good job taking him away. But that leaves TE Jermichael Finley in a good spot and the passing game now revolves around him. He offers the size of a tight end with a receiver’s skills. The Redskins will have to rotate coverages on him; safety LaRon Landry is not best in coverage so look for a combo effort. Donald Driver is still effective, too. They will try to spread out the offense.

9.   How should they defend Aaron Rodgers? Um, very carefully? Not a good enough answer, is it? They can’t just sit in a cover-2 as they often did last week. Rodgers will chip away at that and control the ball and put up points. Chicago used a lot of Tampa-2, but that requires the middle linebacker to drop into the middle and the Redskins don’t have linebackers who cover as well as the Bears. They blitzed one time vs. the Eagles and didn’t blitz a ton vs. St. Louis. But to slow Rodgers, they might not have a choice – especially with Haynesworth out. Perhaps the way to go is run overloads yet somehow keep seven in coverage. Tough task. What helps is that Green Bay is not a running team at all. Just keep in mind, however, that the strength of the line is the interior and they have a burly fullback in John Kuhn who isn’t fast but can run with power. But if he carries more than 10 times that would be a surprise.

10.   Where are the Pack vulnerable offensively? The tackle spots. RT Mark Tauscher is doubtful and if he doesn’t play, then rookie Bryan Bulaga might replace him. Bulaga is a good talent, but the knock on him is that he lets defenders get into him a bit too much. That means someone – Andre Carter perhaps – could have fun. Also, Brian Orakpo vs. Chad Clifton should be interesting. Clifton has struggled at times and has a tougher time vs. stronger players. Like Orakpo.

11.   Who will win? The Redskins are getting Green Bay at the right time. Maybe. The Packers haven’t exactly looked terrific the past two weeks, showing a lot of holes. Their quarterback is terrific; their tackles are suspect. But Rodgers unloads the ball quick so does it matter? I made my initial pick not realizing Haynesworth would not play. I’ll stick with it, but with little confidence. This game is a difficult one to pick. But Donovan McNabb should have a stronger day. Redskins 27, Packers 26.