It’s week 4 of college football and conference play has arrived en masse. Here are three games to keep an eye on:
No. 22 Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama – 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
The defending national champs host the Aggies in Tuscaloosa a week after dispatching Ole Miss on the road by 55 points. Tua Tagovailoa has cemented his status as the top QB for the Crimson Tide and placed himself firmly within the Heisman Trophy race. The kid is the real deal. He’s completing passes at a 72 percent clip and has tossed eight TDs without throwing a pick.
On the other side, Kellen Mond has been really good for Jimbo Fisher and Co. He has yet to throw a pick this season and went 23-for-40 for 430 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson while adding another 33 yards on the ground. He had to air it out in the second half to get the Aggies close, and that’s exactly what he did. Can he put together another big game on the road against one of the toughest defenses in the country?
The run game will be crucial, especially for A&M. The Aggies defense gave up 115 yards on the ground to Clemson. That’s respectable, but it’ll need to be even better to stop ‘Bama’s rushing attack. Tagovailoa’s arm prevents teams from stacking the box and selling out to stop the run. A&M’s Trayveon Williams ran for a measly 31 yards on 17 carries against Clemson for an average of 1.8 yards per carry. That won’t get it done. You can’t be one-dimensional against Alabama and expect to win.
Spread offenses have given the Tide trouble in recent years. Quarterbacks like Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, and Deshaun Watson have given Saban’s defenses fits because of their ability to run, throw, and escape pressure. They got the ball to their playmakers and forced ‘Bama to make tackles in open space.
Pay attention to these two sets of numbers: 61-7 and 117-7. The first is how much Alabama has outscored opponents by in the first quarter of its first three games. The second is the combined score for Alabama this season at halftime. The Crimson Tide are straight-up embarrassing teams.
As of Friday afternoon, Alabama is a 26-point favorite coming into the game. While Mond and the Aggies used a 13-point fourth quarter to make it close against Clemson, that was a home game with a raucous crowd cheering them on. I’m picking ‘Bama to win big, but take the points. Twenty-six points is a lot to throw out there with an offense that has shown the ability to throw the ball and could score some garbage-time points.
No. 7 Stanford at No. 20 Oregon – 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC
“College GameDay” is in Eugene, Ore., for this Pac-12 North showdown. Since 2010, these two teams have split the eight matchups and are 4-4. Want to see something even crazier? Oregon has averaged 32 points per game in those eight games. How much have the Ducks allowed on average in those same games? 32.1 points per game. There is literally a 0.1 points per game difference on average in the eight times these teams have played each other this decade!
Oregon has tossed aside Bowling Green, Portland State, and San Jose State, but the Ducks haven’t faced an opponent anywhere near the likes of Stanford so far this season.
Oregon QB Justin Herbert is set to shatter his career-best for touchdown passes in a season. He already has 12 through three games. However, he has also thrown four picks and his completion percentage is under 57 percent. The ground game will be key for the Ducks. CJ Verdell, Tony Brooks-James, and Travis Dye have combined for nearly 500 yards, more than 5.4 yards per carry and four touchdowns. The matchup at the line of scrimmage will be critical. If Stanford, a team that’s incredibly physical on both sides of the line, stuffs the run, Herbert is going to need to make plays with his arm.
Stanford running back Bryce Love, the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy last season, is my X-factor in the game. He left the USC game in the fourth quarter with an injury and didn’t play last week in Stanford’s win over UC-Davis. Without him, the Cardinal only managed 137 rushing yards on 33 carries. He’s set to start this week against Oregon. Stanford needs him to not only play, but play at the level we’re used to seeing from him.
K.J. Costello has had a good-but-not-great season under center for Stanford. His completion percentage is a hair under 62 percent and he has thrown seven TD passes against three picks. Like Herbert, he’ll need to take better care of the ball. Keep an eye on JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The senior wideout is off to a fantastic start. He is tied for 3rd in the country in touchdown catches and tied for 14th in the country in receiving yards as he and Costello have connected for 13 catches, 324 yards, and five TDs.
Stanford is a two-point road favorite coming into this game. With Love in the backfield, I think the Cardinal will cover and pull out a tough win at Autzen Stadium.
No. 18 Wisconsin at Iowa – 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Big stakes in Iowa City as this game will likely determine who wins the Big Ten West.
The Badgers, who were ranked No. 6 last week, are coming off an incredibly disappointing upset loss at home to unranked BYU, snapping their streak of 41 straight nonconference home wins. Wisconsin hadn’t lost a nonconference game at home since 2003.
Wisconsin’s Alex Hornibrook is a milquetoast QB. He doesn’t stretch the field, but he still typically gets the job done even if he never really looks impressive while doing it. On Wisconsin’s final drive, he led the Badgers from their own 8 to the BYU 24 with 41 seconds remaining. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, senior kicker Rafael Gaglianone missed the 42-yard field goal that would have likely sent the game into overtime. Badgers sophomore running back Jonathan Taylor is having another great season, averaging almost 172 yards per game on the ground. Taylor had a good game against BYU, carrying the rock 26 times for 117 yards, but he’ll need to be even better against a stingy Iowa defense.
How good has Iowa’s defense been through the first three games? The Hawkeyes have only allowed an average of 42 rushing yards per game and an incredible 209 total yards per game! While Wisconsin’s offensive line is much better than any of the lines Iowa has faced this season, I expect the Hawkeyes will be up to the task of limiting the damage on the ground.
Hawkeyes QB Nate Stanley will have to make plays with his arm in order for Iowa to have a chance. The defense can’t do it alone. Look for running back Toren Young to get a ton of work in the backfield. The sophomore from Madison, Wis., is averaging more than five yards a carry this year.
Iowa tight end Noah Fant is my X-factor in this game, and he’s a big target at 6-foot-5. He leads the Hawkeyes in receiving yards and touchdown catches and is tied for the team lead in receptions. He and fellow tight end T.J. Hockenson combined for 54 catches, 814 yards, and 14 touchdowns last season, making them one of the country’s top tight-end duos. With his touchdown catch last week against Northern Iowa, Fant became the all-time leader in touchdown catches for a tight end at Iowa. Pretty impressive considering Iowa has produced a plethora of NFL tight ends like Dallas Clark, Scott Chandler, Tony Moeaki, C.J. Fiedorowicz, and George Kittle. Fant and Hockenson are two players you should keep an eye on for the Hawkeyes because you definitely may see them play on Sundays in a few years.
Kinnick Stadium has long been the place where national championship aspirations go to die. Four of the last five times a top-five team came to Iowa City, they left with a loss. It was nearly five-for-five, but Penn State escaped with a win last year after an incredible late-game drive and touchdown pass on the final play of the game.
Wisconsin heads in as a three-point favorite. I’m calling for the upset and taking the Hawkeyes as home underdogs.
