Capitals general manager George McPhee admitted in February that he and his staff saw issues with the roster they had constructed as far back as training camp. But once the NHL season starts fixing obvious holes is difficult, at best. Even within days of the trade deadline there might only be a handful of teams out of playoff contention and willing to move players out.
“That’s the difficulty in our business now. The most active dates are July 1 and the trading deadline and there isn’t a lot of trading in between,” McPhee said on Feb. 17. “That’s what’s harder about our business now for managers because you might see something about your club coming out of training camp that you may not like, but there’s not a whole lot you can do about it during the season. You have to wait almost six months to address it.”
So McPhee’s time has come. With two first-round draft picks, six unrestricted free agents, four more restricted free agents to sign and a new coach to hire, he will have a busy summer ahead. The Caps move forward without knowing what the new collective bargaining agreement will look like. The current contract between owners and the NHL Players’ Association expires on Sept. 15.
“The labor situation is nothing that I can comment on or want to get involved in,” McPhee said this week. “I run a hockey department and will let [team president] Dick Patrick and [owner] Ted Leonsis worry about that stuff… I’m just going to try and make good hockey decisions.”
Much has been made this week about the status of winger Alex Semin. Agent Mark Gandler said that unless his client’s role changes it’s unlikely he will return. You can argue about how Washington should use the 28-year-old Russian – he probably would make good use of consistent penalty-kill time – but organizations in general don’t deal well with demands like that. Gandler once believed Washington would make an offer just good enough to refuse, but even that may not happen now.
The other five unrestricted NHL free agents are defenseman Dennis Wideman, veteran forwards Mike Knuble, Keith Aucoin and Jeff Halpern, and goalie Tomas Vokoun, who says he almost certainly won’t be back.
Wideman is the most interesting case. He is just 29 and had a salary-cap hit of $3.97 million. He was an All-Star in 2011-12 and registered 46 points, 10-most among all defenseman. His situation depends on the market. There are plenty of teams desperate for offensive production from the blueline who could make a push. Plus. Washington has five defensemen under contract for 2012-13 and two more – Mike Green and John Carlson – are restricted free agents and likely will be back. Can’t see McPhee doing a four-year deal at $5 million per year with Wideman, but wouldn’t put it past someone else. If the market craters or even just stays flat? Then a Wideman deal makes sense. But even then term would be a sticking point.
If all six free agents leave, McPhee will clear $15.47 million worth of cap space. Things aren’t quite that rosy, however. Washington has just eight forwards signed right now for $29.56 million. Jay Beagle and Mathieu Perreault are restricted free agents. That gets you to 10 if both return. Still need to sign four more to fill out the roster.
On the blueline, the Caps are committed to spending $9.935 million with a raise definite for Carlson, who was on his rookie contract last year ($845,833), and Green at least getting his qualifying offer of $5 million, which would be a pay cut ($5.25 million). Both players could obviously sign longer deals, though Carlson has little leverage. Similar situation to teammate Karl Alzner last summer. He took a two-year deal for $1.285 million.
Assuming the goalies are Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth – that was the plan last summer anyway until Vokoun fell into their lap for cheap – Washington will be up around $49 million once all the restricted free agents sign. Figure on Beagle and Perreault agreeing to deals around $800,000 with Green taking his qualifying offer and turning next season into a straight contract year. No better motivator, right?
Carlson has better offensive numbers than Alzner and could beat his number – say, $1.5 million. Add in defenseman Tom Poti’s contract – yes, he still has one year to go on that extension – and a buyout for defenseman Tyler Sloan ($233.333) and you’re looking at about $53 million. Then there are the four open forward spots.
Problem: What’s the salary cap? Is it $64.3 million like last year? Does it skyrocket on July 1 closer to $70 million and would Leonsis be willing to go that high? Or does it plummet once the CBA negotiations are settled? Now you see the challenge McPhee faces. In our scenario, you’ve cleared two aging veterans (Knuble and Halpern) who still possess some value, Semin, a frustrating player who still walks out the door with 54 points that you need to make up, Wideman, whose production theoretically should be made up by a healthy Green, and Vokoun, who is replaced in-house.
A weak free agent market at center is the perfect excuse to hold your cash when everyone else is lining up to see who can nab the next untradeable contract. Instead, exploring the trade makes the most sense. The Caps can talk about using their two first-round picks to rebuild a depleted farm system. But you came within a game of the Eastern Conference finals. Using one of those picks as a piece to add a roster player works, too. The second half of the Ovechkin era has already begun. Who do you want to go after? Give me names. Yes, if they’re available they have flaws. So did Semin. It’s time to roll the dice. I think they will.
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