During spring training 2006, many national baseball writers and commentators reached the conclusion that the Florida Marlins had no chance to compete, and, would likely have a dismal, “historically” bad season under freshman manager Joe Girardi. Two of their better pitchers, Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett, had gone elsewhere, leaving 22-game winner Dontrelle Willis as the only proven commodity in their starting rotation.
Their prediction seemed spot on by May 21 when the Fish found themselves 20 games under .500, at 11-31. From that point on, however, the Marlins went 67-53 to finish at 78-84 — still out of the race, but a remarkable turnaround nonetheless. Those same pundits, whose predictions were so far off the mark, turned around and gave Girardi the National League Manager of the Year Award — just in time for him to be fired by Florida for an inability to get along with his superiors.
Spring training 2007 found many of those same journalists and bloggers predicting doom and gloom for Washington’s NL entry. Historical ineptitude wouldn’t be harsh enough to describe how bad this team was going to be: They’d surely challenge the ’62 Mets for losses; one reported on ESPN that scouts were holding a pool to predict how many games the Nats would lose under new skipper Manny Acta, with guesses as high as 130! We may have been wrong about the Marlins last year, they said, but thisone’s a no-brainer.
Really?
After 34 games and a record of 9-25, it looked like they might be right. When they lost 80% of their starting rotation injury, it seemed to cinch the deal. To borrow an old cliché, however, there’s a reason they play 162 games. From game 35 on — and feel free to check my math — the Nats are 45-39. They seem to have settled into a 10 games under .500 for the season pace; they’ll lose a couple and then win a couple to recover. It’s been a very entertaining product, to say the least.
Simple logic dictates that if the folks who voted Girardi last year’s NL MOY Award are consistent with the way they voted last season, Manny Acta must surely be this year’s winner, barring a prolonged — and at this point, unexpected — losing streak. It’s fascinating to read and listen to some of these people (many of them old friends) who started the year telling the nation how bad the Nats were going to be, and then criticizing the franchise for not drawing bigger crowds. I don’t know, it seems to me that when you expend valuable air time talking about how bad a product is, you shouldn’t be surprised when fewer people buy it.
Talk to any player on the Nats and you’ll get similar glowing endorsements of Acta. The apparent ‘never-say-die’ attitude of the players is a direct reflection of the manager. No one is “mailing it in” on this club. He praises. He criticizes. He disciplines. That Acta should enjoy a much longer shelf-life than Girardi is a foregone conclusion.
Can those earlier Nats’ naysayers admit they were wrong when the ballots arrive?
Hear Phil Wood Saturdays at 10 a.m. on SportsTalk 980 AM and weekly on Comcast SportsNet’s WPL through the World Series.
