The 1962 New York Mets are safe. Their record 40-win, 120-loss season won’t be threatened by the Nationals this year.
I know, I know, some of you are going to be horribly disappointed, as ripping on the Nats has become such a fun thing for many casual fans for whom the word “research” reminds them of a class they tanked in high school. But, barring a clubhouse-wide outbreak of the green apple quickstep, this year’s Washington squad will finish north of the dreaded .250 winning percentage.
Don’t get me wrong, here, the Nationals are far from “turning the corner,” but a number of kinks have been, at least, partially smoothed out. Starting pitching looks extremely promising, and the bullpen’s supply of gasoline has been severely cut back.
Are you familiar with the “Pythagorean” theory of baseball wins and losses? Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team’s winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed. The legendary Bill James came up with it some years back, and it’s remarkably accurate. It can also tell you when ball clubs have streaks of good or bad luck.
Take those ’62 Mets. They were outscored by 331 runs that year! Their Pythagorean record translated to 50 wins and 110 losses, so their luck weighed on the negative.
The 2003 Tigers, who threatened the ’62 Mets with 119 losses, really were slightly worse based on James’ theory. Outscored by 337 runs, their Pythagorean win number extrapolated to 49, one less than the Amazins’.
The 2007 Nationals — Manny Acta’s first squad — were outscored by 110 runs. Their totals had a Pythagorean figure of 70-92, but their actual numbers were 73-89. One network analyst that spring had predicted the ’07 Nats would lose 130 games, but hey, nobody’s perfect.
Through Thursday’s series with the Red Sox, Washington’s Pythagorean win total was 27, 6 more than their actual 21. Offensively, they are ranked 20 out of 30 big league clubs in runs scored, and while their club ERA is near the bottom, along with Baltimore’s and Cleveland’s, there are obvious signs that pitching is far less of an issue than it was the first 8 weeks of the season.
I have a co-worker who grew up with the Mets and remembers that first season with a great deal of fondness. He believes most Met fans from his generation don’t want that ’62 season replaced in the record book. To those citizens I say, breathe easy.
It’s not happening here.
Phil Wood is a contributor to Nats Xtra on MASN. Contact him at [email protected].
