AFC Championship Game Baltimore Ravens (13-4) at New England Patriots (14-3)
When » Sunday, 3 p.m.
Where » Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
TV » CBS
Keys to a Ravens victory
1 Take advantage of the deep ball » The Ravens’ Joe Flacco is the only quarterback remaining in the playoffs that finished outside the top 10 in passer rating this season — he was 18th in the league at 80.9. Flacco was even scrutinized this week by his own teammate, as safety Ed Reed said he thought Flacco was “rattled” by the Houston defense. But one thing the Ravens passer does well, is throw the deep ball, and rookie wide receiver Torrey Smith has become his favorite big-play target. Flacco and Smith must take advantage of the Patriots’ 31st-ranked pass defense.
2 Rice, Rice baby » Who would have thought Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez would finish with more rushing yards than Ravens running back Ray Rice in the AFC divisional round? Still, the Ravens were able to defeat the Texans despite the fact that Rice ran for just 60 yards on 21 carries. But the Ravens can’t count on winning with another poor performance out of Rice. He had less than 60 rushing yards in just six games this season, and the Ravens lost four of them. Baltimore is going to have to score points to compete with the AFC’s top-ranked offense.
Keys to a Patriots victory
1 Brady’s new favorite » Patriots quarterback Tom Brady doesn’t just make receivers look good, he makes them look unstoppable. In 2007, Randy Moss broke the single-season record with 23 touchdowns. This year, Wes Welker joined Cris Carter as the only receivers to have multiple seasons with more than 120 catches. And also in 2011, Rob Gronkowski broke the single-season touchdown record for a tight end with 17 scores. In last week’s blowout win over the Broncos, Gronkowski had 10 catches for 145 yards and three touchdowns. Can the Ravens stop Brady’s new favorite target?
2 Run stopper » After allowing 252 yards rushing against the Broncos during their regular-season meeting, the Patriots’ defense stepped up last week against Denver. The top-ranked rushing team in the league still had 144 yards on the ground, but it took the Broncos 40 carries (3.6 yards per carry) to do so. Stopping Ray Rice and the Ravens’ rushing game would put even more pressure on quarterback Joe Flacco, who has thrown for more than 200 yards just once in eight career playoff games.
Key Matchup
Patriots QB Tom Brady vs. Ravens secondary
Brady has defeated the Ravens in four out of five meetings, with his only loss coming in the 2009 playoffs. But the Patriots quarterback has thrown as many touchdowns (six) in those five games as he did last week against the Broncos. In the playoff loss two years ago, Brady was 23-for-42 for 154 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions — finishing with a 49.1 passer rating. Led by veteran safety Ed Reed, the Ravens ranked fourth in pass defense this season and forced Texans rookie quarterback T.J. Yates into three interceptions last week.
By the numbers
15 » Touchdowns this season for Ravens running back Ray Rice, who had 14 scores in his first three seasons in the league.
6 » Different New England players who had a rushing attempt in last week’s win over the Broncos, including tight end Aaron Hernandez who ran for 61 yards on five carries.
9 » Home postseason victories for Tom Brady, who has just two postseason losses in Foxborough, although those losses were in the last two seasons.
1 » Time the Baltimore defense allowed 30 points or more in a game this season. The Patriots averaged 32.1 points a game and scored 30 points or more 13 times, including last week vs. the Broncos.
Last meeting
Patriots 23, Ravens 20, OT (Oct. 17, 2010)
Just five days after the Patriots traded Randy Moss, Tom Brady went back to one of his old reliable targets. New England’s quarterback connected with Deion Branch for a 5-yard touchdown to spark a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback and Stephen Gostkowski hit a 35-yard field goal in overtime for the win. While Brady struggled at times, throwing two interceptions, the Ravens’ Joe Flacco had almost double Brady’s passer rating (119.3 to 69.5). Baltimore running back Ray Rice ran for 88 yards on 28 carries (3.1 yards a rush).
Examiner predicts …
Patriots 28, Ravens 24
Tom Brady doesn’t have great career statistics vs. the Ravens, but it’s hard to argue against his 4-1 record. The Patriots are also at home, where they have won 23 of 24 games over the last three years during the regular season — although they have lost twice in Foxborough the last two years in the postseason. The Ravens defense will still give Brady some issues, but the future Hall of Famer will start clicking with his talented receivers in the fourth quarter.
