No. 1 Kentucky (36-2) vs. No. 4 Louisville (30-9) When » Saturday, 6:09 p.m.
Where » Superdome, New Orleans
TV » CBS
Keys to a Kentucky victory
1 Get out on the break » While most teams turn steals into easy buckets, Kentucky has been able to turn blocked shots into offensive opportunities. And the Wildcats — led by 6-foot-10 freshman Anthony Davis’ 4.6 rejections a game — blocked 71 more shots than any other team in the country. Whether it be from a steal, long rebound or block, no one is better at finishing in the open court than Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The Wildcats turn easy baskets into big runs. In the Elite Eight against Baylor, Kentucky went from an early five-point deficit to an 11-point lead in under four minutes.
2 Defend the 3-point line » In Kentucky’s two losses this season, Indiana and Vanderbilt went a combined 15-for-33 (45 percent) from beyond the arc. Louisville isn’t the greatest 3-point shooting team — hitting just 31.7 percent — but it does have several players that could hurt the Wildcats from the outside with Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith and Russ Smith. In Louisville’s last four losses, Kuric went a combined 4-for-28 (14 percent) from 3-point range. Whenever a more talented, highly favored team falls in the NCAA tournament, the 3-point line is usually the culprit.
Keys to a Louisville victory
1 Make the game ugly » Louisville will not be able to outscore Kentucky. Indiana tried that in the Sweet 16 and lost 102-90. So Louisville needs to win with defense, something it has been able to do a lot during its eight-game winning streak. The Wildcats average 77.1 points a game, but the Cardinals haven’t allowed an opponent to reach 77 points in 12 straight games. Louisville used this tactic to perfection to defeat West Region top seed Michigan State, holding the Spartans to 44 points — the lowest scoring output for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament in the shot clock era.
2 Another big day for Behanan » Freshman forward Chane Behanan has had his ups and downs all year, but the 6-foot-6, 250-pounder is playing his best at the right time. He has scored in double-digits in each of the Cardinals’ four tournament games and is coming off a 17-point, seven-rebound performance in the Elite Eight against Florida. Not only will Behanan have to provide an offensive spark, he will have to help control the boards. The Cardinals’ second-leading rebounder will have a tough task against Kentucky — one of the country’s top rebounding teams.
Key matchup
Marquis Teague (Kentucky) vs. Peyton Siva (Louisville)
This is one of the few matchups that could favor Louisville, even though Teague is probably more talented. The Wildcats point guard has a quick first step, but he is way too turnover prone. He has had three or more giveaways twice in the tournament and 19 times during the regular season. Since being named the Big East tournament MVP, Siva has reached double digits in points just once in the NCAA tournament, but he has averaged 7.0 assists.
By the Numbers
1 » Game in which Kentucky freshman Anthony Davis fouled out this season. He hasn’t been disqualified since Nov. 20 but had four fouls in the Elite Eight vs. Baylor.
25 » Years since Louisville coach Rick Pitino’s first trip to the Final Four. Only Dean Smith has a larger gap between first and last Final Four appearances.
9 » Three-pointers made out of 15 attempts (60 percent) by Kentucky guard Doron Lamb during the NCAA tournament. Lamb hit a team-high 47.1 percent of his 3s this year.
37.5 » Field goal percentage defense for Kentucky — the best in the nation. Louisville was tied for third in the country, holding opponents to 38.0 percent shooting.
Last meeting
Kentucky 69, Louisville 62 (Dec. 31, 2011)
Kentucky freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist dominated with 24 points and 19 rebounds, and Anthony Davis had 18 second-half points to go along with 10 rebounds and six blocks. The Cardinals were led by sophomore guard Russ Smith, who had a career-high 30 points. Louisville came back from a 15-point deficit to tie it early in the second half, but Kentucky responded with a run and pulled away down the stretch.
Examiner predicts …
Kentucky 74, Louisville 62
The Wildcats are just too talented and Louisville is just too offensively challenged for this upset to happen. The Cardinals’ defensive pressure should keep it close, at least for one half. This matchup between in-state rivals has some of the most compelling storylines of any recent Final Four matchup, but once the teams take the floor it will be clear which team is better — and that’s Kentucky.
