Midwest Region final
No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 6 Tennessee » Sunday, 2:20 p.m., CBS
X-factor » Health. Michigan State is a banged-up team; does it have enough left to beat a team with similar defensive intensity and rebounding prowess? Guard Chris Allen has been limited because of a foot injury and forward Delvon Roe will need knee surgery after the season. Will this hinder him against the Vols’ athleticism inside, especially with only one day off between games? The Spartans also lost starting point guard Kalin Lucas to an injury in the second round.
Why Michigan State will win » Tennessee beat Ohio State with its inside game, specifically Wayne Chism, who scored 22 points and hauled in 11 rebounds. The Spartans, however, are better equipped to prevent that from happening. They consistently outrebound opponents. Also, Korie Lucious has run the point well in Lucas’ absence; he’s small but quick and can push the tempo. Guard Durrell Summers has been hot and Spartans coach Tom Izzo is 5-1 in Elite Eight games.
Why Tennessee will win » The Volunteers have a deep bench and get contributions from many players. They lack an elite scorer, but they have a lot of players who can score. They defend the perimeter well thanks to 6-foot-7 J.P. Prince, a big reason why opponents have not shot well against them this tournament. The Vols can rotate defenders on the smaller Lucious and try to wear him down.
Did you know? » Summers scored in single digits in seven of his last eight games entering the NCAA Tournament, making a combined 22 of 57 field goals. But in the first three tourney games, Summers has averaged 19.7 points and made 22 of 44 shots from the floor. Meanwhile, four different players have led Tennessee in scoring at least three times since top player Tyler Smith was suspended from the team on Jan. 1.
The Examiner predicts …
Michigan State can control Tennessee on the boards and in the paint, which will force the Vols to become a better perimeter-shooting team. They are inconsistent from the 3-point line. If they’re making their 3s, watch out. If not, advantage Michigan State. Though we’re wary of the Spartans, we like their pedigree and defense in this one.
– John Keim
South Region final
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 3 Baylor » Sunday, 5:05 p.m., CBS
X-factor » If you’ve gotten this far, then you’re playing with the big boys. But can you survive among them in the paint? The surprise interior force in the tournament thus far as been Duke center Brian Zoubek, who has a combined 27 rebounds in the last two games. But in Ekpe Udoh, Josh Lomers and Quincy Acy, the Bears will be as formidable a foe as the Blue Devils have faced on the glass.
Why Duke will win » The confidence of Duke’s star trio of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith grows with every game, and hoping that they won’t make their outside shots won’t be an effective game plan for the Bears. While Baylor also is in uncharted waters as a program, Mike Krzyzewksi makes his living in March, and his aggressive defense will make the Bears’ backcourt pay dearly for mistakes that are bound to happen.
Why Baylor will win » Duke simply hasn’t found any rhythm offensively, especially on the perimeter, and so it must rely on work at the other end of the floor. The problem is, it’s pick-your-poison against one of the most versatile teams remaining in the draw — either try to stop guards LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter or hold down the inside. If Duke can’t do both, Baylor won’t be stopped.
Did you know? » Duke hasn’t been to the Elite Eight since 2004, when it beat Xavier in Atlanta before losing to Connecticut in the Final Four. Baylor last advanced this deep in the NCAA Tournament in 1950 — which also was the last time they won a game in the Big Dance.
The Examiner predicts …
This is a fitting regional final between the best two teams in this corner of the bracket, but given the strength of the Big 12 and lack thereof in the ACC, the Bears’ and Blue Devils’ seedings could easily be reversed. Baylor’s backcourt is superior, as is its homecourt advantage — Houston is just four hours from Waco. The program’s resurrection from the ashes of death and controversy will be complete when the Bears cut down the nets and head to Indianapolis.
– Craig Stouffer
