Texas Tech and Virginia will play for the national title on Monday night. Both teams have made incredible runs, but there can be only one champion. Only one team will cut down the nets and celebrate amid the confetti. But which team will it be?
Texas Tech (3 seed)
Path to the title game: Wins over No. 14 Northern Kentucky (72-57), No. 6 Buffalo (78-58), No. 2 Michigan (63-44), No. 1 Gonzaga (75-69), and No. 2 Michigan State (61-51).
Texas Tech’s win over Michigan State was all but assured when Jarrett Culver, their best player and an almost definite top five pick in this year’s NBA draft, drained a three with just under a minute left in the game. Getting to that point was a bit painful.
If you like scoring, the first half of Texas Tech-Michigan State was not for you. The Red Raiders went into the break leading 23-21. For fans of each team as well as fans of basketball who, you know, like to see the ball go in the basket, it was a tough watch. That being said, Texas Tech did what Texas Tech does very well and advanced to its first national title game.
The Red Raiders have the nation’s third-ranked scoring defense. They contest everything: every dribble, every pass, every shot. They are also one of the nation’s top teams when it comes to blocking shots. They have long, athletic players that clog up passing lanes and then trap opponents around the baseline. With no room to operate, no good angles, and no good view of where to go next with the ball, that leads to a lot of turnovers.
Culver, Davide Moretti, and Matt Mooney form a three-headed monster in the backcourt. While Culver finished with 10 points, much of which came on that late three that I mentioned earlier, and five rebounds against Michigan State, Mooney was the hero in the semifinals, knocking down four threes and scoring 22 points.
Defense and balance. That’s how the Red Raiders have gotten it done all season long. Keep an eye on senior forward Tariq Owens. He has 13 total blocks in the tournament and could have a big impact defensively in addition to the nine points and six rebounds that he averages per game.
Just how good is Texas Tech’s defense? Well, SB Nation wrote that the Red Raiders have the best defensive efficiency rating of any college basketball team since Ken Pomeroy began tracking the statistic 17 years ago.
UVA (1 seed)
Path to the championship game: Wins over No. 16 Gardner-Webb (71-56), No. 9 Oklahoma (63-51), No. 12 Oregon (53-49), No. 3 Purdue (80-75 OT), and No. 5 Auburn (63-62).
Virginia has now pulled off back-to-back wins where it snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. It needed and got a buzzer-beater just to force overtime against Purdue in the Elite Eight and prevailed despite a 42-point effort from Purdue’s Carsen Edwards. Then, of course, there was the win against Auburn.
I know what you’re thinking. Yes, Virginia’s win over Auburn in the semis was and will forever be marred by controversy because of the non-call (Ty Jerome’s double dribble with under three seconds to play that would have and should have given the ball back to Auburn) and the call that was called correctly but some people didn’t like (the shooting foul with 0.6 seconds remaining). Kyle Guy calmly drained all three free throws to give Virginia the lead and the win.
Jerome did double-dribble and Guy was fouled while shooting a three. These things are both true. Regardless, Virginia will be playing in its first-ever national title game.
Only two teams could lay claim to having a better scoring defense than Texas Tech and the Cavaliers are one of them. In addition to having the nation’s fifth-most efficient defense in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, they also have the nation’s third-most efficient offense.
One of the big reasons for that is Virginia’s ability to make threes. UVA is top 10 nationally from beyond the arc. Not only are the Cavaliers good at making threes, they’re very good at preventing opponents from making theirs. Virginia opponents make just 28.7% of their three-point attempts, giving UVA the nation’s fourth best three-point defense. Mooney, Culver, and Moretti can all catch fire from three-point range, so Virginia will have to continue to be stingy on the perimeter.
Jerome and Guy are the straw that stirs the drink for Virginia. They are the engine that makes the offense go. However, De’Andre Hunter can’t be ignored either. He’s a six-foot-seven sophomore guard averaging nearly 15 points and five rebounds per game who shoots better than 52% from the field. While Culver will almost certainly be a top five pick in the NBA draft, Hunter could land in the top 10 as well.
My prediction:
I’m expecting a closely contested game the whole way with both teams failing to score more than 65 points. Based on their defenses, it’s more likely that neither team will crack 60. But here’s the bottom line on why I’m picking Virginia to win it all.
The Cavaliers were a national punchline a year ago after losing in the first round to 16th-seeded UMBC. Now, they’re 40 minutes away from a national championship. I think their collective experience, defensive prowess, and success in big-pressure moments will help them win the national title.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
