Pessimism isn’t something I’m comfortable with, but this can’t end up working out.
Here’s how the pots have been filled for Friday’s World Cup draw (which you can celebrate with Jaime Moreno, Stuart Holden and adidas at Union Station on Friday during lunch):
Pot 1 (seeds): South Africa (A1), Germany, Brazil, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina, Netherlands
Pot 2 (Asia, Oceania and CONCACAF):, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Mexico, Honduras
Pot 3 (Africa and South America): Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria, Paraguay, Chile, Uruguay
Pot 4 (Europe): France, Portugal, Slovenia, Switzerland, Greece, Serbia, Denmark, Slovakia
Draw rules: No two teams from the same confederation can be drawn in the same group (except European teams, where a maximum of two will be in a group). For example, South Africa cannot play the African teams from Pot 3, and Argentina and Brazil cannot be drawn against the three remaining South American teams.
What’s that all mean? That Friday is going to feel like it did four years ago, when the U.S. was handed its own Group of Death in the Czech Republic, Italy and Ghana. In fact, how about Italy, Slovakia and Ghana this time around? That would at least be ha-ha funny. The fact is, the draw is more likely to accurately reflect where the U.S. is in the world soccer hierarchy, whether it wants to admit it or not — a borderline second-tier team, at best, that will be granted no favors when it comes to advancing out of the first round.
(The memories are clouded when it comes to 2002, but keep in mind that fortune was definitely on the U.S.’ side when South Korea opened the back door in the group stage and landed the U.S. against the one second-round opponent it was more than confident enough to face, Mexico. Fortune, of course, turned with Torsten Frings’ handball in the quarterfinals, but the U.S. had exhausted its aces to get that far…)
Still, it can’t help but feel like a conspriacy if FIFA lives up to its reputation and delivers Spain, France and Ivory Coast.
If the stars align, the U.S. will get South Africa out of Pot 1, Algeria or Uruguay out of Pot 3, and Slovenia, perhaps Greece, out of Pot 4.
In fact, if any either of the following happen, the draw actually is a success: 1) the U.S. draws South Africa, or 2) the U.S. avoids France and Portugal.
At least that feels optimistic.
