It’s week 12 of college football and the regular season finales are just one week away. I have crushed it over the last two weeks, going 6-0 straight up and against the spread. That brings my numbers, through eight weeks of picking games, to 16-8 straight up and 14-10 against the spread.
Here are three games to keep an eye on this Saturday:
No. 12 Syracuse University (8-2, 5-2) at No. 3 University of Notre Dame (10-0) – 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC
This game will be played at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Syracuse has already been eliminated from the College Football Playoff, but the Orange can still get themselves into a New Year’s Day bowl game by playing spoiler against Notre Dame.
Syracuse served notice to the country that it was for real when it went on the road and nearly upset Clemson, 27-23. The Orange knocked Trevor Lawrence out of the game, but Travis Etienne put the team on his back with 203 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries to lead Clemson to a come-from-behind win.
Eric Dungey is one of the best quarterbacks the Fighting Irish will face this year. He holds or shares 16 team records — from passing yards per game in a season (297.7) to career 300-yard passing games (10) to total offense per game for a season (330.2) and career (294.3) to most rushing yards in a game by a quarterback (200). He has 10,594 total yards, fifth all-time in the ACC, and needs just 71 yards rushing to reach 2,000 for his career.
Syracuse’s offense scores 44.4 points per game, good for fourth-best in the country. The defense, however, is tied for 71st in the country, giving up 27.6 points per game.
Notre Dame comes in with the nation’s 15th-best scoring defense, allowing less than 19 points per game. Ian Book, who leads the nation in completion percentage, should also be returning after missing the Florida State University game with an injury. While the offense had little trouble scoring on the Seminoles, Book is definitely in a different tier and unlocks so much more of the offense than Brandon Wimbush.
The Line: Notre Dame (-10.0)
My Pick: Notre Dame better not look ahead to their regular season finale against the University of Southern California. While I believe their defense will be tested, I think the Fighting Irish will hang on and win in a close game. I’m taking Notre Dame to win straight up, but I think those betting the line should take Syracuse and the points.
No. 24 University of Cincinnati (9-1, 5-1) at No. 11 University of Central Florida (9-0, 6-0) – 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC
ESPN’s College GameDay is in Orlando to catch some American Athletic Conference action!
The Knights have the nation’s longest active win streak at 22 games and they’ve impressively scored at least 30 points in all 22 games. That’s the third-longest streak of 30-plus-point games since the AP Poll started in 1936. The Bearcats will head to Orlando to try and end the win streak and knock them off the perch of the AAC. UCF claimed to be national champions last season after finishing the year with an undefeated record, but it’s facing the same problem it faced last year in the eyes of the CFP committee: a weak strength of schedule.
McKenzie Milton is a must-watch player for UCF. He has thrown for more than 2,300 yards this season and has 21 touchdown passes with just five picks. He’s not very tall. In fact, the junior quarterback is listed at under six feet, but he shines when the pressure is on.
On the other sideline, Michael Warren II is the straw that stirs the drink for the Bearcats. He has 206 carries for 1,082 yards and a whopping 17 rushing touchdowns.
Cincinnati’s scoring defense is ranked seventh-best in the country, allowing fewer than 15 points per game. The formula appears simple for Cincy: run the ball effectively and play great defense.
UCF has the benefit of the home crowd and the confidence of its win streak and elite talent with guys like Milton. A win would give the Knights the home-field advantage in the AAC title game, but it looks like they’ll need serious help in order to get a shot at the CFP.
The Line: Central Florida (-7.0)
My Pick: I think Cincinnati has the right pieces and the right strategy to pull off the upset with a strong defense and a run game that can control the tempo of the game and keep UCF’s offense off the field, but I’m not sure if they can sustain that for four quarters. I’m taking the Knights to win and cover.
No. 16 Iowa State University (6-3, 5-2) at No. 15 University of Texas at Austin (7-3, 5-2) – 8:00 p.m. ET on Longhorn Network
This is a Big 12 elimination game. Both teams need a win and some help next week to get a berth into the Big 12 title game.
The Cyclones are riding a five-game win streak, a streak that started with a road win against ranked Oklahoma State University and smothering top-10 West Virginia University at home. Iowa State is 5-2 in conference play for the first time since 1977, and has won five straight conference games for the first time in school history.
True freshman Brock Purdy turned down the chance to play for Nick Saban at the University of Alabama in order to play for Matt Campbell at Iowa State. He’s undefeated as a starter, ranked fourth in the country in QBR, and has done some impressive things in his five games under center, throwing for 1,315 yards along with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Can the Cyclones survive without the Big 12’s second-leading rusher for a half? That will be a big obstacle for them to overcome.
Meanwhile, Sam Ehlinger has been outstanding for the Longhorns. After throwing two picks in the opener against the University of Maryland, Ehlinger has thrown for 17 touchdowns and has run for nine more without throwing an interception. The defense has been what’s ailing this team. The Longhorns got shelled in the first half against Oklahoma State and fell just short in their comeback attempt, couldn’t stop West Virginia from either scoring late or converting their two-point attempt to win, and blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead last week to Texas Tech before scoring in the final minute to win.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey has seven touchdown catches and nearly 1,000 receiving yards on the season, putting him inside the top 15 in the country for receiving yards. He’s a big-time playmaker and his rapport with Ehlinger has gotten better and better as the season has gone along.
The Line: Texas (-3.0)
My Pick: This game is a complete coin flip for me. I could see it going either way, but Montgomery being out for a half really hurts the Cyclones. I think Texas gets out to a decent lead and hangs on to win. I’m taking the Longhorns to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@Noah715) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
