U.S. Open — Handicapping the field

Dustin Johnson (40 percent chance) – How many times Saturday did we hear that Johnson is a “flatliner?” Well, get prepared to hear it some more today. But that adjective will be forgotten if Johnson falls from the lead. He’s looked great so far, but what will happen if Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson applies some pressure.

Graeme McDowell (20 percent chance) – No European has won in 40 years. But don’t discount his chances because of that. He grew up in coastal Portrush, Northern Ireland. Shooting a 70 on Sunday might get it done.

Tiger Woods (25 percent chance) – Has never came from behind to win any of his 14 majors. But this might be his best chance as neither of the players in front of him have won a major. Woods has solved Pebble Beach’s poa annua greens. He’s hitting the ball better than he has all year. And the fairways are so hard and fast, that he’ll only use his troublesome driver two or three times.

Ernie Els (10 percent chance) – If Els was playing with the Great Intimidator, his chances would be cut in half. But Els is paired with Phil Mickelson, giving him a change to change his recent luck in majors. With a win, Els would set the record for the longest time between Open victories – 13 years.

Gregory Havret (0 percent chance) – He’s playing with Tiger Woods. He’s never won in America. He’s 33 and he’s playing in a major for just the fourth time. Worst of all he’s from France. Remember Jean Van de Velde?

Phil Mickelson (5 percent chance) – He’d have to fire a lights-out round, like his Friday 66. Even then, that might not get it done. He’s seven behind Johnson, four behind McDowell. And then there’s Woods, who he trails by two.

The Pick: Tiger Woods finished the third round birdie-birdie-birdie. Here’s guessing he picks up where he left off, fires a final-round 67, wins his 15^th major, then breaks down in an emotional Father’s Day display, separated from his family and missing his beloved dad, Earl.