Pants On Fire will steal Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
In a field devoid of depth and with favorite Uncle Mo coming off a loss, the first leg of the Triple Crown seems ripe for a big upset, a one-shot wonder like recent Derby winners Giacomo, Monarchos and Charismatic.
Maybe I’m a liar, but Pants On Fire could pay 40-1 under former Maryland jockey Rosie Napravnik. Forget stocks and bonds; you can buy a beach house in cash if you hit this exacta repeatedly.
Pants On Fire’s chances look poor on paper with just one win in four starts this year. But he comes off a Louisiana Derby victory in which he outlasted Derby contender Mucho Macho Man in the stretch.
Two things came out of that race worth backing. First, he’s a gamer, a necessary trait in a 20-horse field with its close quarters, bumping and adrenaline. Second, Pants On Fire is improving each time out. Indeed, he posted a sharp May 1 workout at Churchill Downs that drew buzz from the clockers. And when clockers buzz, it’s worth noticing.
With wet track conditions expected, Pants On Fire’s preferred front-running style gives him a big advantage over Dialed In, who loves to come from far back. On a fast track, Dialed In and Uncle Mo are certainly dangerous, but a slower track compromises them.
Napravnik is an adrenaline junkie who is in her first Derby, so she likely will have Pants On Fire near the lead, whereas a veteran rider might be a few lengths back, saving the colt for later in the 1?-mile race. That will be useful in the Derby and will allow Pants On Fire to be at the front near the top of the stretch, when others tire and block late runners.
Uncle Mo was supposed to be the next great horse but was a flat third in the Wood Memorial and recently ill. One thing I’ve learned from 20 years of studying under the Twin Spires is if anything goes wrong in the week preceding the race, do not bet the horse. I’m not using the colt in my triples even if it costs me — unless it’s a dry track and even then not to win.
Instead, Archarcharch is the second choice over Dialed In. Archarcharch won the Arkansas Derby at 25-1 by a neck with a strong late move. He should be a little closer to the lead in Louisville to complete a $1,000-plus exacta.
Dialed In could be the second choice. Certainly, he’s the class of the field after winning twice in Florida for three-time Derby-winning trainer Nick Zito. But the race just doesn’t set up well for him.
Meanwhile, look for the Preakness Stakes winner somewhere in the middle of this field. Uncle Mo and Dialed In might fare better in Baltimore on May 21. Animal Kingdom is also a sleeper who could be a Preakness contender with a decent Derby.
Examiner columnist Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Read more on Twitter @Snide_Remarks or email [email protected].
